Live Thread: Super Tuesday 2


Mississippi is an open primary. Trump is polling at 41 percent. He won with 41 percent in Louisiana in a closed primary. He won with 43.4 percent in Alabama and 38.9 percent in Tennessee in open primaries. I can’t imagine Trump losing Mississippi, but Cruz will close strong because of Carson dropping out and Rubio’s collapse.

Trump wins Mississippi.

Michigan is effectively an open primary. The polls show Trump winning by anywhere from 13 to 22 points. There is a single ARG poll which shows Kasich winning by 2, but it is clearly an outlier. Surprisingly, Michigan has a lot of evangelicals, but not enough to push Cruz to victory. As with Mississippi, the real question is what effect Carson’s withdrawal and Rubio’s collapse will have on Cruz and Kasich.

Trump wins Michigan.

Hawaii is an open caucus. There has been no polling in Hawaii. Mitt Romney won big here in 2012. Rubio hasn’t campaigned in Hawaii which is telling in light of how desperate his campaign is for a victory heading into Florida. Like in Las Vegas, Trump has a hotel in Hawaii which has an economy that relies on tourism.

Trump wins Hawaii.

Idaho is a closed primary. The only poll which was conducted through February has Trump up by 11 points. Cruz has campaigned in Idaho and a pastor who campaigned for him there was recently shot in the head. Cruz will probably benefit enough from Ben Carson withdrawing from the race and Rubio’s collapse to go over the top.

Cruz wins Idaho.

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  1. If Trump wins 55 percent of the remaining available delegates, he is guaranteed the nomination.

  2. What a Night for TRUMP!!! as a southerner Im all smiles right now!! Hope he wins Florida and Ohio and puts this thing away!!!!

  3. Cruz did it again.

    Rubio camp accuses Cruz of ‘dirty tricks’ over Hawaii ‘dropout’ email

    ‘The email, sent by “Ted Cruz Hawaii,” cites a disputed CNN report claiming some Rubio advisers have told him to drop out of the 2016 race before Florida’s primary next week, fearing he could be humiliated by a defeat in his home state.

    “Privately, the campaign is having a debate about whether he should remain in the mix — even for his home state of Florida’s primary,” the email said, going on to quote the report.

    The email then quoted supposed Hawaii caucus-goers — who were not named — saying they don’t want to “waste” their votes on a “likely dropout.”

    Rubio’s campaign already has adamantly denied the CNN report — and when it turned up in the Hawaii email, immediately blasted Cruz for “dirty tricks.”

    “Senator Cruz is up to his dirty tricks again spreading false rumors and lies. We won’t allow him to do to Marco Rubio in Florida what he did to Ben Carson in Iowa,” Rubio spokeman Joe Pounder said in a statement.’

  4. If the “Club for Growth” did try to shake Trump down for a Million Dollars, as he says, there should be immediate arrests for extortion. This is no joke.

    I wonder whose jurisdiction this type of crime would fall under.

  5. Denise mentioned The Mountain Meadow massacre in her post. I’d wager few people know of that event.

    Wiki: The Mountain Meadows massacre was a series of attacks on the Baker–Fancher emigrant wagon train, at Mountain Meadows in southern Utah. The attacks began on September 7 and culminated on September 11, 1857, resulting in the mass slaughter of most in the emigrant party by members of the Utah Territorial Militia from the Iron County district, together with some Paiute Native Americans. Intending to leave no witnesses and thus prevent reprisals, the perpetrators killed all the adults and older children—about 120 men, women, and children in total. Seventeen children, all younger than seven, were spared.–snip–

    The militia, officially called the Nauvoo Legion, was composed of Utah’s Mormon settlers (members of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, or the LDS Church). Intending to give the appearance of Native American aggression, their plan was to arm some Southern Paiute Native Americans and persuade them to join with a larger party of their own militiamen—disguised as Native Americans—in an attack. During the militia’s first assault on the wagon train the emigrants fought back, and a five-day siege ensued. Eventually fear spread among the militia’s leaders that some emigrants had caught sight of white men and had likely discovered the identity of their attackers. As a result militia commander William H. Dame ordered his forces to kill the emigrants.

    By this time the emigrants were running low on water and provisions, and allowed some approaching members of the militia—who carried a white flag—to enter their camp. The militia members assured the emigrants they were protected and escorted them from the hasty fortification. After walking a distance from the camp, the militiamen, with the help of auxiliary forces hiding nearby, attacked the emigrants and killed all of them that they thought were old enough to be potential witnesses to report the attack.

    Following the massacre, the perpetrators hastily buried the victims, leaving the bodies vulnerable to wild animals and the climate.’ –snip–

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