Mississippi is an open primary. Trump is polling at 41 percent. He won with 41 percent in Louisiana in a closed primary. He won with 43.4 percent in Alabama and 38.9 percent in Tennessee in open primaries. I can’t imagine Trump losing Mississippi, but Cruz will close strong because of Carson dropping out and Rubio’s collapse.
Trump wins Mississippi.
Michigan is effectively an open primary. The polls show Trump winning by anywhere from 13 to 22 points. There is a single ARG poll which shows Kasich winning by 2, but it is clearly an outlier. Surprisingly, Michigan has a lot of evangelicals, but not enough to push Cruz to victory. As with Mississippi, the real question is what effect Carson’s withdrawal and Rubio’s collapse will have on Cruz and Kasich.
Trump wins Michigan.
I employ many people in Hawaii at my great hotel in Honolulu. I’ll be there very soon. Vote for me, Hawaii!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) March 8, 2016
Hawaii is an open caucus. There has been no polling in Hawaii. Mitt Romney won big here in 2012. Rubio hasn’t campaigned in Hawaii which is telling in light of how desperate his campaign is for a victory heading into Florida. Like in Las Vegas, Trump has a hotel in Hawaii which has an economy that relies on tourism.
Trump wins Hawaii.
Idaho is a closed primary. The only poll which was conducted through February has Trump up by 11 points. Cruz has campaigned in Idaho and a pastor who campaigned for him there was recently shot in the head. Cruz will probably benefit enough from Ben Carson withdrawing from the race and Rubio’s collapse to go over the top.
Cruz wins Idaho.