Editor’s Note: This is a response to some recent comments.
I’m feeling bullish.
I’ve been methodically laying out my case based on Pew typology surveys, Voter Study Group reports, shifts in the polls, the resorting of the electorate and the shift of the balance of power in the GOP.
We can start with this recent poll:
78% of the public don’t feel that represented by the two parties.
76% of the public thinks the U.S. economy is rigged to advantage the rich and powerful.
69% of the public thinks the mainstream media is more interested in making money by dialing up outrage than telling the truth.
60% of the public would rather employers hire unemployed Americans rather than immigration.
This is a massive level of brewing disaffection.
Next up, this poll came out a few days ago on American democracy:
This is either a record or near record level of disaffection.
Here is another recent poll on raising the minimum wage. Notice that 32% of Republicans and 54% of Indies support raising the minimum wage.
Here are some recent polls on stimulus checks. A third of Republicans and Indies strongly support recurring $2,000 stimulus checks.
This poll was from last fall: a third of Republicans favored a single government program to provide health insurance.
A quarter of Republicans supported Universal Basic Income:
The Trump wing of the Republican Party is populist on economics:
American Preservationists and Anti-Elites are Trump voters:
In the recent YouGov poll on Trump voters, we see the same breakdown on economics. Look at the trade issue:
Look at the tax issue:
What should the government do?
The Pew Research Center has been tracking the people who became Trump voters for 30 years. They are defined by economic anxiety:
Is there really a huge divide between “Left Populism” and “Right Populism”? If so, it isn’t registering in the polls. It was Donald Trump’s idea to up the ante of the stimulus check debate and force the $2,000 issue. He was able to do that because his own base supports wealth redistribution.
Could a Left Populist pull a Donald Trump and run and win the Republican nomination in 2024? At least a quarter or a third of Republicans are already there and the exodus of wealthy suburbanites and professionals (who are gentrifying the Democrats and transforming them into Rockefeller Republicans) is tipping the scales within the party toward a more working class electorate.
Will the GOP establishment defy gravity and stay afloat forever?
Here are three reasons to be skeptical:
Trump voters are now 70% of the Republican Party.
Wealthy suburbanites who are their base have been leaving the Republican Party thereby steadily shrinking support for their brand of politics.
The Baby Boomers and Silent Generation ceased to be a majority of the electorate in the 2018 midterms. Reaganite voters are dying off and younger voters who own less and less are a growing majority.
So, the resorting of the electorate by class and education, changing demographics within the GOP and an intensification of populism all point to trouble ahead for the Mitch McConnells of the world. Congress is full of dinosaurs who are ripe for a downfall.
Republicans will just define “multiracial working class” as helping billionaires gain more money and power.
The GOP can’t win with rural voters alone, but it can unite both rural and suburban voters with an intelligent agenda that looks like Bernie Sanders without the anti-white stuff. If past performance is any indicator of future performance, the GOP will continue the gimmick of making lame identitarian appeals to everyone in a transparent attempt to dupe voters into screwing themselves economically — an extension of the game they’re been playing with rural whites.
Look at how the GOP has tried to come back in places like New York, Illinois, California, etc. They try to bring Latinos onboard by turning the place into a sanctuary state. They tell suburbanites that they’re pro-choice and anti-gun. They tell blacks they’re anti-police.
People across the racial spectrum see what the GOP is trying to do and aren’t buying their bs. They’re just country clubbers that don’t want to pay taxes, salaries, and wages. Everything outside of their radioactive economic agenda is negotiable for them.
They failed to contain Nationalism. The next line of defense the GOP and the larger American Liberal society will do is hope to contain it to Civic Nationalism and not allow the Nationalism to go further. That is why they’re doing the whole “multiracial working class.”
Granted, it has been that way for about 50 years, but that is because the GOP has been a party that is controlled by wealthy suburbanites. Those people are the demographic base of the Free Marketeer wing of the party. The problem is that those people have been leaving the party in droves over the past decade, especially over the last five years, and have been replaced by working class voters. They either physically aren’t in the Republican coalition anymore or have shrunk down to 1/4 or 1/5 of Republican voters.
How long can the GOP maintain an economic agenda that fits a coalition which doesn’t exist anymore? How many more wealthy suburbanites will still be around in the GOP in two or three more election cycles? Those people used to be more evenly distributed between the two parties, but that’s not the case anymore. It seems likely that the frame will have to change in the near future. Those people who like the old frame which is barely hanging are Democrats now.
There are irreconcilable differences between the Native Born White American Working Class and blacks.
The Civil War was wasn’t worth it to free the negro….WW2 wasn’t worth to save (((LEO FRANKS))) (((PEOPLE))). Several million White Men died and maimed in both wars…for What?…In 2021 blacks and Jews have an open White Genocide extermination agenda and campaign to enslave and murder off the HISTORIC NATIVE BORN WHITE WORKING CLASS MAJORITY…..
If Russia and Homosexual PEDERAST Democratic Party have a limited nuclear exchange this year…..THE FUNGUS JOE BIDEN and the Kharzar Anthony Blinken will be globally indicted for WAR CRIMES and carted off to prison…….The structures of White Oppression will start to crumble in the US….
It is the refusal of White Folks in the US to refuse to consent to be governed by both the Deomocratic and Republican Parties years ago that has brought about their demographic demise within the borders of America…….
If you voted for the Hollywood Homosexual Ronald Reagan….you gave a death sentence to all White infants being born in 2021….
Starting with Elvis the Pelvis….Post-1945 SEX DRUGS AND ROCK AND ROLL COUNTER CULTURE was a veritable DEATH SENTENCE for the White Women who were born to returning WW2 US WHITE War Vets ..and every White Female birth cohort each successive year….Perhaps White Men would have better off marrying Muslim Women……
Is there really a huge divide between “Left Populism” and “Right Populism”?
A big Yes.
One stems from Nativism. The other stems from Class centric politics (or anti-nativism internationalism) as a general rule of thumb.
They just have medium-to-superficial similarities which causes people to think there is no large difference.
100% of sheep’s hate the butcher.
Society is about herding, not appeasing people who answer the question what they do not understand.
Is the drinking bottle of vodka in the workplace good or bad ?
It depends. When you try rationally explain that I had bad day and please understand, then herd goes bullish and demand that you must be fired.
When you go full liberal and scream that only questioning about drinking is threat to democracy , human rights , climate and hamster owners union, then the herd will be scared and nobody wants to pick up the fight so you can drink yourself to death.
Herd does not think, herd is only afraid.
Universal Basic Income means that UFOs and alien’s get the money far far away in the Galaxy but only in the planet Earth there is serious problem with fascism Nazism and racism so until Antifa has not finished the job, there will be no UBI.
Word does not mean nothing. It is important who decides what words mean .
America is currently under the control of a neoliberal oligarcharchy. Needless to say it will never rule in the best interests of the people. Only dictatorships and absolute monarchs/enlightened despots would do that.
I think “they” would give Americans free cable TV and Netflix before $2,000 a month. They have to keep the population distracted and entertained.
I’m not a fan of Dan “zioclops” Crenshaw but here is a list for “conservative” principles. What do you guys think?
The Conservative Guide to the Culture Wars (in no particular order):
1. America is worthy of our love and patriotism.
2. Victor mentality is better than a victim mentality.
3. Free speech is absolute. “Hate speech” is not an objective term.
4. It doesn’t matter what kind of gun you restrict, criminals still hurt people. Let us protect ourselves.
5. You get to keep wealth you create & pass it to your kids.
6. The govt has no right to shut down your business or invade your home without due process, even in pandemics.
7. Women should not have to compete against men in women’s sports.
8. Verifying ID to vote is not racist. It is common sense.
9. Borders and national sovereignty are not racist or xenophobic.
10. You can’t have freedom without order, order without law, law without morality, morality without religion, or religion without God.
11. Innocent until proven guilty — not the other way around.
12. Personal responsibility is a virtue.
13. Never give into cancel culture (but stay humble and apologize when you’re wrong).
14. The founding was 1776, not 1619.
15. Stand for the anthem.
16. Policy that favors one race over another is not “social justice,” it is racist.
17. It’s Latinos, not Latinx.
18. Less abortion, more adoption.
19. Only women can be pregnant and breastfeed.
20. It’s ok to lose in competitive sports, and second place trophies don’t help anyone (but also see # 7).
21. More police, not defund the police.
22. We don’t tear up the past, we learn from it.
@John
1. America is worthy of our love and patriotism.
America is our mom. Our Mom is the best mom in the world. We don’t need to explain.
2. Victor mentality is better than a victim mentality.
Bzzt. This sort of quasi-moral rhetoric is a huge reason the “Free Market Conservatives” turn people off. The job of politicians is not to “discipline” us or make us work harder and stop being a victim. Besides, this rhetoric was always just “code word” for “black welfare queen.” That era of wink-wink about racial issues is over.
3. Free speech is absolute. “Hate speech” is not an objective term.
Yes.
4. It doesn’t matter what kind of gun you restrict, criminals still hurt people. Let us protect ourselves.
Yes.
5. You get to keep wealth you create & pass it to your kids.
It’s not wrong, but it is the same problem as number 3. Sorry – aspiring yuppies hoping to work on Wall Street or get rich at a start up in Silicon Valley? The Democrats have them – the Republicans lost them. It’s 30 years too late to do the Newt Gingrich “death tax” thing.
6. The govt has no right to shut down your business or invade your home without due process, even in pandemics.
I’m against these ridiculous “lock downs” and always have been. It’s a violation of our freedom.
7. Women should not have to compete against men in women’s sports.
Of course, common sense. Everyone agrees.
8. Verifying ID to vote is not racist. It is common sense.
100%
9. Borders and national sovereignty are not racist or xenophobic.
100%
10. You can’t have freedom without order, order without law, law without morality, morality without religion, or religion without God.
Bzzt. Keep the Church talk to Church. It’s ok to be Pro-Life of course.
11. Innocent until proven guilty — not the other way around.
The American way.
12. Personal responsibility is a virtue.
Sure, but what is this, Dr. Phil? I think we’re all tired of these sorts of lectures whether it is the “responsibility right” or the “social justice left.” Let’s keep this to politics, real material interests. It’s not a pep talk.
13. Never give into cancel culture (but stay humble and apologize when you’re wrong).
SJW are the real haters.
14. The founding was 1776, not 1619.
Yes
15. Stand for the anthem.
This is sort of like Trump literally hugging the flag. No one is going to disagree, but it is kind of cheesy. If by this we mean race-baiting over the obnoxious black activists like Kapernic, eh, it’s low hanging fruit but it worked for Trump. It’s too easy to overdo this sort of thing.
16. Policy that favors one race over another is not “social justice,” it is racist.
“Anti-racist” is just a code word for “anti-white.” Racism against white people is the number one racial issue in America.
17. It’s Latinos, not Latinx.
The only person clueless enough to ever use the term “Latinx” is that obnoxious shrew Elizabeth Warren, who pretends she’s an Indian. She’s kind of racist, frankly.
18. Less abortion, more adoption.
We’re pro-babies.
19. Only women can be pregnant and breastfeed.
Sure see 7.
20. It’s ok to lose in competitive sports, and second place trophies don’t help anyone (but also see # 7).
? Too confusing.
21. More police, not defund the police.
Yes.
22. We don’t tear up the past, we learn from it.
“If it ain’t broke don’t fix it.”
@BannedHipster,
I happen to agree with what he outlined if he’s sincere. What I have a problem with is he another neocon warmonger for Israel, and believes in the holocaust laws of punishment if you question the “official numbers” It’s a contradiction of his hate is an objective term. It sounds good on paper, but does he really believe it? That’s the million $ question.
Populism circa 2015-2016 raised the prospect of bringing together a broad coalition of normal Whites around key economic and national survival issues. True Cons were originally forced to ride in the back seat because they’ve always been a big part of the problem.
In this way, the potential promise of populism was to DECREASE harmful White vs White polarization (or reorient it) and get normal people who traditionally voted “left” on economics on board with saving the country through reducing immigration, bringing back jobs and restoring pro-family social policies.
During this time many traditional non-voters or traditional Democratic voters were activated to vote for Trump on these core nationalist / populist issues. I saw this happen.
This promise was betrayed, as were these voters.
Trump made a conscious decision to let the establishment back in and largely defer to the donors; mostly sticking to traditional GOP policies. The True Cons were let back in.
As a result, we got a deformed and incomplete populist coalition made up of right wing populists, true cons and some people who didn’t traditionally vote GOP… but turned out to be vulnerable to GOP propaganda.
Instead of uniting Whites around practical issues like jobs, immigration and pro-family policies, Trump created a harmful polarization based on empty culture war signaling (which wasn’t even socially conservative) and the shared reactionary / conspiratorial tendencies of right wing populists and true cons.
The most obvious example of this was during the coronavirus, where Trump created polarization based on… wearing masks and making up conspiracy theories about the virus.
In contrast, an authentic populism would probably have something to say about how the elites got a massive bailout and normal people did not.
Instead of uniting normal Whites around real issues, Trumpism was dividing them and making them fight over the dumbest, fakest issues imaginable… while the elite cashed in.
Trump effectively did the same thing on many of these issues… using (100% empty) culture war or conspiracy type rhetoric to get his supporters to side with the Republican and/or Zionist elite… without even expecting tangible benefits in return.
The effect of Trumpism was to reinvigorate the GOP and get millions of people to buy back in to establishment Republican policies…which are now justified using a new, more persuasive style of rhetoric.
We can’t just put the genie back in the bottle and rewind to 2015 and do things over again, there are permanent consequences when things go this wrong; Trumpism carries enormous baggage and divides our natural base against itself. It also competes very effectively against any kind of populism that would truly challenge the power structure.
We can’t win by polarizing slightly sub-normal whites against normal whites. But we can “own the libs” and keep ourselves busy for decades, without ever breaking out of the cycle of backlash politics.
I don’t think so.
1. Trump isn’t the president anymore. He has been sent into exile.
2. MAGA voters are still in charge of the GOP.
3. Having Trump in power was a sedative that put those people to sleep. They’re wide awake and extremely angry at the moment.
4. There is solid evidence that having Joe as president has intensified White identity.
5. The GOP under Trump was a coalition of rightwing populists, social conservatives and Free Marketeers.
6. Suburbanites have been steadily leaving the GOP since 2012 while more working class voters have moved into the party.
7. The suburbanites are the demographic base of the True Cons wing.
8. It can’t go on forever because these people are leaving the party and dying off. They are a shrinking part of the electorate
9. It is a good thing that they have been driven out. They are pro-immigration, pro-political correctness voters. They are Scrooge Cons who are the reason why the toxic economic agenda is the way it is.
10. The exodus of suburbanites is necessary to moderate the party on economics
I’m not in any rush to join the GOP. It is interesting to analyze as a trend though. Those people are thinning out and shifting toward the Democrats which makes a realignment increasingly likely.
It’s a mistake to think of the GOP establishment solely in terms of McConnell, Romney, Jeb Bush or Neo-Con type figures. It’s true that those figures are fading and have little in the way of a natural constituency.
But the problem is much deeper than that, the donors are capable of flexibility, as long as they get the key policies that they care about. Figures like Ted Cruz are effectively establishment Republicans, but don’t openly take the unpopular RINO type positions. While he’s an uncharismatic person with limited skills, his positions have a real base of effectively edgy libertarians who cloak themselves in patriotism, pretending to be working class, etc. These people were on the outs during the primary, but were brought back in during Trump’s term.
Cruz Crew and GOP boomer populism can’t be seen as completely independent from each other. Republicans who are somewhere along the true con to right wing populist spectrum are united by a set of shared assumptions about ideology and a set of culture war shibboleths that may be difficult to fully capture in polls.
They may see themselves as populist and may have some populist views, but their conception of populism has been warped by GOP propaganda, which closes off certain ideas as “socialism” and directs them towards other, donor class friendly ideas. Additionally, they really do care about issues which detached observers would view as empty signaling.
We know how Trump betrayed his populist promises, but the problem we have is, a lot of these people don’t care. He had incredibly high approval ratings during his term among these core Republican voters. Even now they just want more. What we saw as betrayals or empty signaling, they saw as real victories.
Trumpian populism is not authentic populism, because it is not based on tangible issues, but a shared (and deeply ingrained) enjoyment of GOP propaganda and a True-Con-influenced worldview. That’s why Cruz crew, who are effectively libertarians, are now a core part of the GOP populist base. And much Trumpian populist policy is still effectively libertarian and donor class oriented, although it is less open about it. This libertarian policy is popular with the Trump base, when it is couched in fake populist terms.
The Trumpian populist template appears to be repeatable; DeSantis or Hawley could easily run on this and win, and it would not require him to govern any differently than Trump.
Because it is based on lies, propaganda, empty signaling and dumb culture war issues, instead of tangible issues, Trumpian populism is inherently alienating to the higher quality Whites we would need in order to form an alternative elite that could someday accomplish something.
Not just in terms of intelligence, but in terms of morality; Trumpian populism would be deeply alienating to a White person who truly cared about his community, because Trumpian populism is… in practice… a vehicle for anti-social, anti-white, donor class policies… as we saw over the last 4 years.
Here are my thoughts on sensible populism devoid of “toxic white supremacist dog whistles.”
H1B1 visas given to DACA recipients and their parents, but they forfeit any path to citizenship and can/will be deported permanently if they break any laws.
Priority H1B1 visas should be given to refugees who have skills, can speak English and won’t be a drain on the public purse. Those refugees would meet the genocide criteria of Amnesty International.
Temporary workers pool – no expedited path to citizenship – staffed with vetted foreigners who are documented to have no criminal history only with countries who sign an extradition/deportation treaty with workers who offend. Criminal foreigners would be subject to the same penalties as citizens up to and including the death penalty.
Drop all financial penalties to those on social security/disability getting work and to working children or spouses of welfare recipients.
E-verify mandate for housing and hiring. Landlords/employers who do not comply would be subject to RICO.
Enact a strict “public charge” moratorium for ten years on new citizens.
Enact infrastructure repair and fortification; include re-building sanitariums to commit the mentally ill homeless refusing to stay on their medication, include building transitional housing to help homeless people, include new homestead programs where people can ultimately own abandoned homes if they pay the property taxes and fix them up for ten years.
A very draconian law against false police reports, i.e. hate hoaxes. With added penalties for “racial incitement.” Five years hard time in a federal penitentiary and fifty thousand dollars in fines for the first offense where no one was hurt in retaliation. If such incitement leads to casualties, the death penalty.
Enhanced stalking/harassment penalties against those caught doxxing people with whom they disagree.
A social credit system where an offender can work off (volunteer work) any dings and have them removed from his record.
Instead of rent moratoriums during pandemics (which only hurt small landlords), have an expedited section eight process where the landlord can submit the rent bill to FEDGOV to pick up the lease at the same price. Likewise, a home owner under lock down can submit his mortgage payment to be picked up. Same with car leases, car payments, and credit card payments which would be at zero interest. (I suspect this would put an end to all pandemic lock-downs).
Eliminate all student loans. They’ve been paid back with interest with every bailout, QE and stimulus imaginable.
Single payer health insurance. BCBS, United Healthcare, Humana, etc can be assigned by customers as Benefits Managers. Customers may be offered the option of paying for enhanced benefits. This should include dental and vision.
Eliminate ALL taxpayer foreign aid. Those who have a country as their favorite charity are welcome to donate as much as they want from their own pockets or private foundations.
Replace critical race theory with the history of worker exploitation. When positing that America was built on the back of slaves; include White slaves.
Secondary and high school should focus on technical training and trade apprentices. College should be free, but involve rigorous entry exams where those with the highest scores can get in. Race should never be counted much less considered a factor.
Automatic death penalty by firing squad for rioters/looters. This would also put an end to ghetto lottery pay-outs to families of criminal who die resisting arrest/attacking police/refusing to comply. Any Quannell X-types who show up to incite violence would be subject to immediate execution. Any redress for victims of police brutality would have to go through court.
A national identification card with picture ID as well as a voter’s registration card with picture ID. In-person ballots only with a printed-off receipt given to the voter, so that the voting is transparent.