McAuliffe concedes: pic.twitter.com/MQnSRvuIJA— Jake Tapper (@jaketapper) November 3, 2021
Gay Tim Miller has one of the funniest takes on the Virginia governor’s race. Youngkin won by the race by reaching Assad-like margins in rural areas.
“Pittsylvania County is in Southside Virginia just north of Danville. I lived there for a couple of months in 2005 helping out with the Jerry Kilgore for Governor race. Kilgore won the county by 3,900 votes in a race we lost by 5 points. Fast forward to 2013 and Ken Cuccinelli beat McAuliffe there by 6,200 votes. In 2017, Ed Gillespie beat Ralph Northam there by 7,900 votes.
With 97% of the precincts reporting in Glenn Youngkin is winning Pittsylvania County by 13,200 votes. That’s 5,000 more votes than Gillespie, the 2017 candidate, banked in just that one small county.
The story is the same throughout the rural part of the state. Here are a few other examples, with the margins rounded to nearest hundred:
Wythe County in Southwest Virginia:
Gillespie +4,200, Youngkin +7,400 (93% of precincts reporting)
Rockingham County in the Shenandoah Valley:
Gillespie +10,800; Youngkin +16,200 (91% reporting)
Augusta County also in the Shenandoah, including Staunton:
Gillespie +11,200; Youngkin +18,900 (96% reporting)
Lee County in the far western corner of the state, sandwiched by Tennessee and Kentucky:
Gillespie +4,000; Youngkin +5,500 (95% reporting)
These margins all add up. So while it’s true that in a place like Virginia running up Assad-like numbers in Southside isn’t enough on its own, those tallies can be decisive when combined with the shifts we saw in Loudoun (which went for the Democrat 59-39 in 2017 but this year appears to have gone for McAuliffe by only 55-44) and Virginia Beach (which the Democrat won 52-47 in 2017 but McAuliffe appears to have lost 45-54 this year).
Yet for some reason Republicans are fighting on both fronts while the Democrats have just thrown in the towel in huge swaths of the state. …”
This reminds me of a very important data point:
In the 2020 election, 32% of Biden voters were White working class voters. This was the biggest single bloc of Biden voters even though the party is utterly dominated by White college educated PMCs. There was every reason to believe that Joe Biden could fall even further with that group.
David Shor has said for months that these people and education polarization was going to doom the Democrats. How did that play out in Virginia?
88% of evangelical Christians voted for Youngkin.
54% of Independents and 40% of Moderates voted for Youngkin.
75% of White non-college women voted for Youngkin.
78% of White non-college men voted for Youngkin.
60% of non-college voters voted for Youngkin.
76% of White non-college voters voted for Youngkin.
Youngkin won all groups of voters without bachelor degrees.
Youngkin outperformed Blumpf.