The Atlantic: How Virginia Democrats Fell Victim To History

This is an important point.

We can talk about how different demographic groups like non-college educated White women shifted between the 2020 election and the 2021 elections, but explosive Republican turnout and those “Assad-like margins” in rural areas had more to do with McAuliffe’s defeat in Virginia. It seems that the latter is more likely to be permanent than the former.

I’m wondering what would this look like in states like Maine, Iowa or Ohio which are so much more rural, so much whiter, so much less educated that Virginia which has the highest concentration of White voters with college degrees of any state in the country because of the DC suburbs.

The Atlantic:

“Looking at the county-by-county results in Virginia reinforces that conclusion. Youngkin did capture a higher share of the vote than Trump or Gillespie in many of the key suburban counties around Washington, D.C., and Richmond that moved toward Democrats over the past 15 years (especially during the Trump era). But those shifts were generally modest, with McAuliffe’s vote falling in the range of two to three percentage points compared with Northam in the huge D.C. suburbs of Fairfax, Prince William County, and Arlington, or in Henrico and Chesterfield outside Richmond. (Only in Loudoun County, a more distant D.C. suburb at the center of disputes over teaching critical race theory, did Youngkin gain more—about five percentage points.) And because turnout was so high, the latest counts show that McAuliffe, despite that decline in vote share, netted about as large a vote margin from those big metro counties as Northam did four years ago: As of yesterday morning’s results, the Democrat, for instance, carried the big five Northern Virginia suburban jurisdictions by about 256,000 votes, compared with 261,000 votes for Northam.

Even with Youngkin’s marginal gains in the center, both the exit polls and actual results suggest instead that McAuliffe’s biggest problems were explosive turnout and huge deficits in the parts of the state most alienated from Biden and the Democrats who now control Washington. Turnout in Republican-leaning places was so strong that the share of the statewide vote cast by the blue-leaning big five Northern Virginia counties declined this year after steadily rising over the past three governor’s races; Richmond city and neighboring Henrico, still solidly Democratic, also cast a smaller percentage of the vote this year than in 2017, based on results as of Wednesday afternoon. …”

This was the Trump Belt in 2016.

It is easy to imagine Democrats getting their clocks cleaned in these places in light of what just happened in western Virginia.

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6 Comments

  1. “what would this look like in states like Maine, Iowa or Ohio which are so much more rural, ”

    Two of those states don’t have large black populations, as an object lesson.
    Folks in Virginia have several black cities to open their eyes to reality.
    Many rural WHITES are too insular, not having experience with diversity.

    • Exactly. They and their kids think that negroes are like the ones they see in tv and movies. It used to be that responsible white parents would educate their kids about the truth.

      Not giving them this education is a dereliction of duty.

  2. “I’m wondering what would this look like in states like Maine, Iowa or Ohio, which are so much more rural, so much whiter, so much less educated than Virginia.”

    Different.

    Because Yankees don’t think or vote like we do. They always haf to “balance things out,” by voting Democrat this way, then voting Republican, that way. But always, no matter which twists and turns that they take, they’re heading in a vaguely lefterly direction, and contrary to the South and the Interior West, and real conservatism. Which is distinctly
    Southern in nature.

    Which is why we need separation from them, politically.

  3. “what would this look like in states like Maine, Iowa or Ohio which are so much more rural”:

    The last map you posted above seems to show a trend toward Republican in those states, and some other northern states. Maine, perhaps the Whitest state with the highest proportion of English descent, was always Republican, but Minnesota would appear to be changing parties according to the map. Yet this is all trivial.

  4. Was McAuliffe wearing lipstick in that photograph? Maybe he’s a tranny, or transitioning, or something. Who knows nowadays, especially with the Democrats? At least the Republicans try to keep their perverts hidden, gotta give the worthless Republicans that.

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