Van Jones: “Democrats are coming across as annoying and offensive and out-of-touch. I think there is a message here.”— Michael Shellenberger (@ShellenbergerMD) November 3, 2021
Anderson Cooper. “It seems annoying to a lot of people” pic.twitter.com/htNI89luii
This is an important point.
We can talk about how different demographic groups like non-college educated White women shifted between the 2020 election and the 2021 elections, but explosive Republican turnout and those “Assad-like margins” in rural areas had more to do with McAuliffe’s defeat in Virginia. It seems that the latter is more likely to be permanent than the former.
I’m wondering what would this look like in states like Maine, Iowa or Ohio which are so much more rural, so much whiter, so much less educated that Virginia which has the highest concentration of White voters with college degrees of any state in the country because of the DC suburbs.
“Looking at the county-by-county results in Virginia reinforces that conclusion. Youngkin did capture a higher share of the vote than Trump or Gillespie in many of the key suburban counties around Washington, D.C., and Richmond that moved toward Democrats over the past 15 years (especially during the Trump era). But those shifts were generally modest, with McAuliffe’s vote falling in the range of two to three percentage points compared with Northam in the huge D.C. suburbs of Fairfax, Prince William County, and Arlington, or in Henrico and Chesterfield outside Richmond. (Only in Loudoun County, a more distant D.C. suburb at the center of disputes over teaching critical race theory, did Youngkin gain more—about five percentage points.) And because turnout was so high, the latest counts show that McAuliffe, despite that decline in vote share, netted about as large a vote margin from those big metro counties as Northam did four years ago: As of yesterday morning’s results, the Democrat, for instance, carried the big five Northern Virginia suburban jurisdictions by about 256,000 votes, compared with 261,000 votes for Northam.
Even with Youngkin’s marginal gains in the center, both the exit polls and actual results suggest instead that McAuliffe’s biggest problems were explosive turnout and huge deficits in the parts of the state most alienated from Biden and the Democrats who now control Washington. Turnout in Republican-leaning places was so strong that the share of the statewide vote cast by the blue-leaning big five Northern Virginia counties declined this year after steadily rising over the past three governor’s races; Richmond city and neighboring Henrico, still solidly Democratic, also cast a smaller percentage of the vote this year than in 2017, based on results as of Wednesday afternoon. …”
This was the Trump Belt in 2016.
It is easy to imagine Democrats getting their clocks cleaned in these places in light of what just happened in western Virginia.