Unless we see big structural changes in the Democratic party's coalition, then the modal outcome for 2024 is Donald Trump winning a *filibuster-proof trifecta* with a minority of the vote.— (((David Shor))) (@davidshor) April 4, 2022
If you want to help stop that, come check out our job board! https://t.co/2xKqs6nT3e pic.twitter.com/cK1ojkyYII
A recent analysis by the political scientist David Shor suggests that Republicans could lose the popular presidential vote in 2024 and still end up with a filibuster-proof majority of 60 senators. @DavidOAtkins @highbrow_nobrow https://t.co/25NO1qn16G— Ale (@aliasvaughn) April 10, 2022
This is what interests me.
Is it possible to break out of the stalemate in the Senate like we have seen happen over the last year on the Supreme Court and pass major legislation through Congress?
“The modern period of Congressional elections arguably began in 1994, when Republicans captured both the House and Senate in the backlash against Bill Clinton’s chaotic first two years. That ended an era in which Democrats had held the House majority for 40 consecutive years, and controlled the Senate, usually by wide margins, for all but six years over that long span. …
Aggressive GOP gerrymanders partly explain that difference in the House. But that doesn’t fully explain the GOP’s House advantage and it isn’t a factor at all in the party’s Senate edge. Instead, the Republican Congressional success largely reflects geographic and demographic limitations of the Democratic coalition that almost certainly will be evident again this week. …
If anything, the Democrats’ geographic challenge is even greater in the Senate. A dominant trend in modern US politics is that both parties are winning virtually all the Senate seats in states that typically support their presidential candidates. The challenge for Democrats is that, despite their repeated victories in the popular vote, slightly more states reliably lean Republican than Democrat in presidential races. Democrats already hold 39 of the 40 Senate seats in the 20 states that voted against Donald Trump both times (Susan Collins in Maine is the only exception). But 25 states voted for Trump both times, and they provide Republicans an even larger Senate contingent, with the GOP holding 47 of their 50 seats. Democrats have squeezed out their precarious 50-50 Senate majority only by capturing eight of the ten seats in the five states that flipped from Trump in 2016 to Biden in 2020 (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona and Georgia).
This geography is what makes this week’s Senate elections so crucial to Democrats. This year’s key races are occurring almost entirely in states that Biden won, albeit mostly narrowly, with Democrats defending seats in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, New Hampshire, Colorado and Washington, and targeting Republican-held seats in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. (With longer odds, Democrats have also mounted serious challenges to Republicans in Ohio and North Carolina, two states that twice voted for Trump.) Given that map, Democratic strategists recognize it’s critical for the party to expand, or at least maintain, its Senate margin now.
After this year, the Senate terrain will rapidly become more foreboding for Democrats. In 2024, they will be defending all three of the seats they hold in the two-time Trump states (Sherrod Brown in Ohio, Joe Manchin in West Virginia and Jon Tester in Montana), as well as seats in half a dozen other swing states that could go either way in a presidential contest (including Arizona, Nevada, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan.) If most of the toss up Senate races fall to the Republicans on Tuesday, those gains, combined with the 2024 map, could put the GOP in position to dominate the upper chamber throughout this decade. “If Republicans take the Senate, I don’t see in our immediate lifetime how Democrats are going to take back” the majority, says Doug Sosnik, a senior White House political adviser to Bill Clinton. …”
As things stand today, the way the system works is that both parties pass their agenda in the House and only bills that can be pushed through budget reconciliation or survive a filibuster become law. John McCain singlehandedly killed the Republican attempt to appeal Obamacare. Joe Manchin singlehandedly killed most of Biden’s agenda. Narrow Senate majorities ensure that nothing much ever happens. The cycle of trench warfare and backlash politics in the midterms always tosses out the party in power.
If the Republicans got to 60 votes in the Senate though (enough to overcome a Democrat filibuster) with a 6-3 majority on the Supreme Court, it is conceivable that the cycle could be broken. State legislatures could pass laws on controversial issues to test the waters at the Supreme Court. Roe v. Wade has already gone down and affirmative action is poised to go down next. That’s one way to break the gridlock. The Supreme Court could also strike down the Voting Rights Act and return power to the states to control their own elections. This would enable Jim Eagle states like Georgia to destroy Democracy as libtards understand it by tightening up who is eligible to vote which would also help to end the stalemate. The most likely path out of the gridlock though is that progressive activists continue to take such toxic stands on polarizing cultural issues that they undermine and splinter the Democratic coalition which in the long term is unable to effectively compete for power in the Senate, Electoral College and Supreme Court.