I’m really looking forward to seeing how things have changed between 2020 and 2020 and specifically the overall trend and trajectory with all the different subgroups.
“As we move into the endgame of the 2022 election, the Democrats face a familiar problem. America’s historical party of the working class keeps losing working-class support. And not just among white voters. Not only has the emerging Democratic majority I once predicted failed to materialize, but many of the nonwhite voters who were supposed to deliver it are instead voting for Republicans.
This year, Democrats have chosen to run a campaign focused on three things: abortion rights, gun control, and safeguarding democracy—issues with strong appeal to socially liberal, college-educated voters. But these issues have much less appeal to working-class voters. They are instead focused on the economy, inflation, and crime, and they are skeptical of the Democratic Party’s performance in all three realms. …
From 2012 to 2020, the Democrats not only saw their support among white working-class voters—those without college degrees—crater, they also saw their advantage among nonwhite working-class voters fall by 18 points. And between 2016 and 2020 alone, the Democratic advantage among Hispanic voters declined by 16 points, overwhelmingly driven by the defection of working-class voters. In contrast, Democrats’ advantage among white college-educated voters improved by 16 points from 2012 to 2020, an edge that delivered Joe Biden the White House.
Polling points to a continuation of these trends in 2022. Democrats are losing voters without college degrees while running up the score among college-educated voters. …
In part, this results from further deterioration of Democratic support among white working-class voters. But nonwhite working-class voters—especially Hispanic voters—may be following suit. Democrats carried Hispanic voters by 35 points in 2018 and 25 points in 2020. Available data and reporting strongly suggest that this further decline is being driven by working-class voters, the overwhelming majority of this demographic. …”
As David Shor and Sean McElwee pointed out the other day in Politico, it is these people who are running Democratic campaigns now which sound like Twitter and MSNBC.
“The more you represent liberal elites, the more you will turn off non-college voters of all types,” he told me. And the slow creep of working-class voters of color into the Republican camp “is not something people saw coming, and I am not even sure how you deal with it. How do you get a bunch of people who are conservative to vote for the Democratic Party, especially if what you are pushing is ideological polarization?” …
“Your job as a left-wing person is to figure out how to take your ideas and like, trick them and mold them into something that the median voter could support,” Shor said.
He and McElwee asked for whatever the third most popular cocktail was and then ordered that. It came with little flowers on top. “Every Democrat needs to ask themselves if what they are doing is increasing education polarization or decreasing polarization, because if we don’t figure that out we are never going to win the Senate and we are never going to win the Electoral College.”
“2012 is the last time that an older generation of political operatives was in charge of Democratic campaigns,” he added. “It’s all millennials now, and you can see it in how they conduct their communication. It used to be about persuading people, and now it is about trying not to piss off any activist groups, and it gets to the point where you can’t say anything without having consultants review it for months to make sure it doesn’t offend anyone, and it gets to the point where people don’t even hear what you are trying to communicate.” …”
We will see how it goes on Tuesday.
They are trying to pretend now that this never happened.