Republicans won enormous and decisive victories in Florida and South Carolina. Everyone else on the ballot in Georgia won EXCEPT Herschel Walker who fumbled the ball.
In Florida, Gov. Ron DeSantis put on “the armor of God” and crushed Charlie Crist in a historic landslide by nearly 20 points. It was unquestionably the worst defeat that Democrats suffered anywhere in the country. Florida has shifted from a swing state into a solid Red state.
Little Marco Rubio rode his coattails to a 17 point victory over Val Demings in his Senate race.
For the first time since Reconstruction, no Democrat holds a statewide office in Florida. Florida Republicans won a comfortable supermajority in both chambers of the Florida state legislature. Both DeSantis and Rubio won Miami-Dade County. Miami is the fourth largest metro in the country.
In the House, Florida Republicans won 20 out of 28 House seats which is up from the 16 to 11 split in the last Congress. 5 Florida Democrats came close to losing. The swings from the 2020 election were R+3.5 in FL-01, R+8.7 in FL-02, R+12.2 in FL-03, R+14.4 in FL-04, R+84.3 in FL-05, R+57.7 in FL-06, R+11.6 in FL-07, R+12.3 in FL-08, R+10.1 in FL-09, R+12.2 in FL-10, R+16.8 in FL-11, R+12.1 in FL-12, R+1.3 in FL-13, R+5.3 in FL-14, R+14 in FL-15, R+15.5 in FL-16, R+12.4 in FL-17, R+51.9 in FL-18, R+15 in FL-19, R+7.7 in FL-20, R+17.6 in FL-21, R+7.4 in FL-22, R+8.4 in FL-23, R+54 in FL-24, R+9.7 in FL-25, R+23.5 in FL-26, R+14.3 in FL-27, R+21.1 in FL-28. Every single House district in Florida swung toward the Republicans.
Georgia is a Jim Eagle state.
It is a place where “Jim Crow on steroids” is practiced.
The “white supremacy” and “voter suppression” is so bad in Georgia that 52.3% of eligible voters turned out to vote. By comparsion, 42.6% of voters turned out in Delaware and 43.6% of voters showed up in California. Even though the Senate race was a showdown between a black reverend and a black UGA running back, the “racism” was so bad that the 2021 MLB All-Star Game was moved from Atlanta to Denver. Joe Biden condemned Georgia for standing with Bull Connor over John Lewis.
In their rematch, Brian Kemp defeated President of United Earth Stacey Abrams by nearly 8 points, which was significantly up from his 1.4% margin in 2018. Many of the same people who voted for Brian Kemp chose not to vote for Herschel Walker which is why a runoff has been scheduled for December. Donald Trump has always been unpopular in Georgia. There has always been a type of anti-Trump suburban Republican and Independent voter in Georgia who voted for Mitt Romney in 2012 (53.30% to 45.48%), but who didn’t vote for Trump in 2016 (50.77% to 45.64%) or 2020 (49.47% to 49.24%). Those people split their tickets again and voted for Kemp and Warnock to stick it to Donald Trump.
Is it voter fraud?
No, the GOP won every other statewide race in Georgia like Lieutenant Governor, Attorney General, Secretary of State, Ag commissioner. A significant number of anti-Trump Republicans either didn’t vote for Walker or voted for Warnock. We know it wasn’t voter fraud because it didn’t benefit Stacey Abrams. Republicans also retained control of both chambers of the Georgia state legislature.
Herschel Walker uniquely coming up short in Georgia in 2022 while the Republican candidate for Ag commissioner prevailed is the latest example of the chaos that Trump has caused in Georgia politics. David Perdue and Kelly Loeffler lost their Senate runoffs in 2021 because the Republican base was fraud pilled. Trump also tried and failed to defeat Brian Kemp in his primary. Kemp defeated Perdue by 50 points.
Walker vs. Warnock Exit Polls
According to the exit poll, 70% of Whites in Georgia voted for Herschel Walker and 90% of blacks voted for Raphael Warnock. Walker won 71% of White men, 69% of White women, 12% of black men, 51% of voters with a bachelor’s degree, 58% of White college graduates, 79% of White non-college graduates, 95% of Republicans and 42% of Independents. The reason that Warnock edged Walker in the first round is because he won 53% of Independent voters to 42% who went for Walker.
In the House races, Republicans won 9 out of 14 seats. Hank Johnson who once worried that Guam might capsize won with 78.5% of the vote in his Metro Atlanta district.
The swings from the 2020 election were R+5 in GA-01, R+0.3 in GA-02, R+7.5 in GA-03, R+0.8 in GA-04, R+1.6 in GA-05, R+9.7 in GA-06, R+3.7 in GA-07, R+9.6 in GA-08, R+6.8 in GA-09, R+5.6 in GA-10, R+10.1 in GA-11 and in R+9 in GA-12, D+3.2 in GA-13 and D+5.7 in GA-14.
Big Picture … only one race in the entire state of Georgia went sideways for the GOP and it just happened to be the U.S. Senate race. There was also a 5.7 point swing against Marjorie Taylor Greene.
Henry McMaster was reelected as governor with 58.1% of the vote.
Tim Scott was reelected to the Senate with 62.9% of the vote.
Republicans won Secretary of State and Attorney General and a supermajority in the South Carolina House for the first time since Reconstruction. South Carolina Senate races are in 2024.
In the House, Republicans won 6 out of 7 House Seats. The swings from the 2020 election were R+5.3 in SC-01, R+16.8 in SC-02, R+62.5 in SC-03, R+81.5 in SC-04, R+11.4 in SC-05, R+7.9 in SC-06 and R+12.5 in SC-07. South Carolina voted like other Southern states where Republicans are pushing up against the ceiling of near absolute power at the state level and squeezing Democrats at the margins.
In Florida, Georgia and South Carolina, there were no issues with the election.
Florida ran the smoothest election in the country. The results were known within hours. Calls were made almost instantly in South Carolina. In the wake of the 2020 election, Georgia passed its Election Integrity Act of 2021 and the results there were quickly tabulated. In Georgia, a critical slice of Independent voters simply voted for Warnock or left their ballots blank and voted Republican in other races.
Florida is the third largest state in the country. Georgia is the ninth largest state in the country. Florida and Georgia have large black and Hispanic populations. Florida has the third highest Jewish population in the country. 91.2% of Florida voters live in urban areas. Each state has some kind of limit on abortion (6 weeks in South Carolina, 6 weeks in Georgia, 15 weeks in Florida). Each state has a large population of White evangelical Protestants and relatively unfavorable racial demographics.
In spite of this, the news out of Florida was Republicans conquering Miami-Dade County and winning in a large urban area. In Georgia, there was an anti-Trump vote against Herschel Walker, but otherwise Republicans swept the state. South Carolina swung like the rest of the region. Interestingly enough, the only candidate in the entire region who seemed to be punished by voters was Herschel Walker. Brian Kemp, for example, WASN’T punished for the abortion ban that he signed in 2019 and implemented as governor and neither were the Republicans in the Georgia House and Senate who passed it. It was the “normal Republicans” who banned abortion at 6 weeks in Georgia. Herschel Walker was the most “pro-choice” Republican candidate on the ballot and was attacked for aborting his own children.