UPDATE:Nate Silver has chimed in on how Joe Biden’s obvious senility is becoming a bigger political problem for him.
Democracy Defenders were all over television this weekend arguing that actually they don’t have to bother with democracy because of this neat constitutional trick. Former White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki interviewing Rep. Adam Schiff on MSNBC was a particularly hilarious example of this.
The big picture: The comments by Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) and Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.) came as Trump sent out fund-raising emails Sunday on potential litigation over the 14th Amendment that railed against “traitorous ‘Republicans'” who may be looking into potential cases as he stares down four criminal indictments, per NBC News.
The latest WSJ poll has Trump tied with Biden, 46 to 46.
Joe Biden is facing a perfect storm of headwinds that has Trump polling better than ever against him. Sure, you could say the polls don’t matter because Trump is going to prison anyway, but they do show that Biden is struggling to stay even with Trump much less pull away from him.
- He is widely perceived as too old
- Most voters are still angry about the economy
- Young voters are demoralized after the failure of student loan debt relief
- Black voters are more apathetic
- Cornel West is going to run as a third party candidate
- Joe Biden doesn’t have COVID going for him anymore
- Trump is holding more of his 2020 base than Biden because the indictments have incensed Republicans
- Joe Biden is far more unpopular than he was in 2020
- Trump is running a less traditional campaign than he did in 2020 when Jared Kushner and the GOP were in charge
- Democrats have lost a bit of cohesion after four years in power which is normal because parts of the ruling coalition are always disaffected
If the election were held today, Trump would have the edge and would likely win, but you know they can’t allow that to happen again. The 2024 election is more reminiscent of the 2016 campaign in a lot of ways. Third party voters, a decline in black turnout and disaffected Bernie Bros tipped that election to Trump.