2024 Predictions, In Retrospect

I had a great year.

I’m not going to wait to collect my “I told you so” chips.

1. Donald Trump Wins The Republican Nomination

It wasn’t even close.

This was the easiest call because half of Republican voters are Trump voters and 2/3rds have been White populists since around 2021. The old Republican establishment is 15% of Republican voters. Around 25% of Republican voters are Ted Cruz types who used to be the pre-Trump Republican base. The Republican base in the Trump era is largely people who weren’t Republicans a decade ago. There isn’t a “lane” anymore for an establishment candidate to win the Republican nomination.

2. Donald Trump Finishes Remaking The Republican Party In His Image

Trumpism is the successor of Reaganism.

In 2016, Donald Trump’s victory was written off as a fluke in Washington. Trump’s defeat in the 2020 election seemed to confirm the conventional wisdom among the establishment that the Trump era was a blip and that Joe Biden would restore “normalcy” in American politics.

Today, Paul Ryan is gone. Ben Sasse and Jeff Flake are gone. Liz Cheney and Adam Kinzinger are gone. Mitt Romney is gone. Trump crushed Nikki Haley in the primary and won the popular vote when he defeated Kamala Harris. Gradually, the power of the Republican establishment has faded over the last several election cycles (2018, 2020, 2022 and 2024) through retirements and Trump loyalists being elected to Congress. Trump now has nearly unchecked power within his own party.

In 2016, Trump was elected president and instantly became a besieged island in his own White House, which was staffed by Republican establishment types. Paul Ryan and Mitch McConnell ran Congress. Anthony Kennedy was the swing vote on the Supreme Court. Trump will now have far more power to push his agenda in his second term than he did in his first term because he has fully captured and conquered his own party. No one with a future in Republican politics will stand up to him.

3. The Supreme Court Rules Trump Is Eligible To Run For President

No surprises.

It was a unanimous decision.

Democratic lawfare spectacularly backfired in two ways. It both united and galvanized Republican voters around Trump and it set damaging Supreme Court precedents.

4. Sleepy Joe Biden Remains Deeply Unpopular

There was no Biden comeback in 2024.

After Joe Biden’s disastrous debate performance, the internal polling got so bad that the knives came out and Biden was forced out of the race. When Kamala Harris took over, the Biden campaign had him losing to Trump by over 400 Electoral College votes. Biden is now leaving office as the worst president in modern history as Democrats turn on him for pardoning Hunter and delivering the White House back to Trump and his radicalized supporters. Biden’s trajectory was clear over a year out from the election. Trump was consistently leading Biden in the polls which didn’t change until the mirage of “Brat Summer.”

5. Ukraine Has a Bad Year

Ukraine got the bag when it was passed by Congress.

Russia, however, has made its biggest gains since the start of the war on the battlefield. Ukraine’s fate is now in the hands of Donald Trump and a Republican Congress. More importantly, Ukraine has demonstrated once again that it doesn’t have what it takes to “win” the war. There is no reason to believe that Trump and the Republican Congress will back Ukraine for “as long as it takes.”

Ukraine is the next Afghanistan.

6. Israel Goes To War With Hezbollah

A year ago, it was obvious that Israel was gearing up for a war with Hezbollah. I didn’t anticipate how efficient Israel would be at decimating their top leadership though.

7. Donald Trump Is Convicted On Felony Charges

America voted for the “convicted felon.”

Just as I thought, the lawfare against Trump helped him with his fundraising and especially in turning out the anti-system, low propensity voters who he weaponized against Kamala Harris. The funniest part of it all is that all of these cases are being thrown out. The lawfare was a pure donation to Trump.

8. BIPOCs Continue To Drift Away From Democrats

Told you so.

Black and Hispanic men abandoned Kamala Harris and the only demographic in the country which didn’t shift toward Trump was liberal college educated suburban White women. Black turnout dipped again in Georgia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania and helped tip those states to Trump.

9. Disaffected Democrats Vote For Independent Candidates

Jill Stein helped Kamala Harris lose Michigan and other key swing states.

10. Democrats Have a Plan To Energize Their Base

In retrospect, the “plan” was to schedule an early debate, force Joe Biden out of the race and switch to a new “Not Trump” candidate after the Trump campaign had spent millions of dollars running a race against Joe Biden. Millions of dollars were spent on celebrity endorsements. The polls were deliberately skewed in order to create the illusion that Kamala Harris had momentum. She was “brat.” It didn’t work and David Plouffe has admitted that Kamala Harris was never ahead of Trump in her own internal polling.

11. Trump Avoids Prison In 2024

It would have been a disaster.

Cooler heads prevailed and Trump’s delay strategy worked.

None of this was obvious a year ago. The judge in the New York case blinked on Trump’s sentencing.

12. Civil War 2 Doesn’t Happen Except In The Movie

It was one of the best memes of the year though.

13. Debates Are Over

I was completely wrong.

Trump debated Biden and it was the most consequential debate in American history. I was half right though in that he refused to agree to three debates with Kamala Harris.

14. Donald Trump Is Elected President and The Revenge Tour Begins

I told Keith Woods that Allan Lichtman would lose his keys. I called all the swing states except Michigan and predicted that Trump would win the national popular vote by 1 point.

15. Democrats Riot In 2024

So far, I seem to have got this one wrong.

After Kamala Harris lost, the “Resistance” collapsed, libtards were demoralized and CNN and MSNBC lost a huge chunk of their audience. No one rioted. Hardly anyone has even protested.

16. Alt-Right Remnants Continue Clowning Themselves

Told you so.

I could name a lot of names here.

In particular, Nick Fuentes became a hot take factory, got everything about the election wrong and ended the year being shunned and ridiculed across the entire Right over the Wifejak meme.

17. Alabama Wins BCS National Championship

Dead wrong.

Michigan won the national championship. Nick Saban retired. Bama had a terrible year.

10 Comments

  1. Brad,

    Oh my. Number 17 on Alabama is way wrong. My family loves USC so I can not gloat.
    We have land and family in California.

  2. Yes true and IMO all good .

    Our President Trump is a “ man against time “ – not the last man against time , just a great one .

    Still , we should understand that over 95% of Washington DC voted for Kamella H and her Je& Hollywood macher lawyer husband .

    I hope the second Trump admin sets up operations outside the DC Beltway .

  3. Hunter Wallace generally did an excellent job on forecasting. He accurately analyzed the likely outcomes of the judicial persecution of Trump and predicted what would happen as the process went forward. As he correctly analyzed, after a certain court calender date, it became impossible to stop Trump from winning. Hunter, predicted that the courts wouldn’t stop him from running by that date and he was correct. He was also correct and more confident than even I, regarding the likely electoral college and voter County. Not shabby.

    Regarding the other predictions, lets just get Auburn out of the way. When, I travel in the South during football season, I am regularly accosted on the freeways by groups of mad max warrior White people, flashing colors of blue and orange screaming unknown tongues at me. I’ve now recognized this as some sort of strange ethnic warrior dance of Southrons from Auburn University. I know Hunter Wallace went thru these initiatory rites. Therefore, Hunter is incapable of making most football predictions regarding Auburn Football team. Not surprisingly, he lost. I correctly adjudicated this situation and made the correct play on the betting boards. Thank you for counter signaling reality Hunter.

    Another three points are equally as important. First, 2024 still isn’t over. The Leftists could begin some sort of revolution and assassination of Trump before inauguration day. I am particularly concerned about Trump’s trip to France at the invitation of that diminutive Rothschild agent, Macron who has a serious GILF syndrome. I’ve often questioned if Macron didnt have a hand in the burning of Notre Dame. In turn, I am worried he might use the occasion of Trump’s invitation to attend its grand resanctification as a chance to eliminate Trump on behalf of the globalists, in return for backing Marron’s continued Presidency. Macron’s government collapsed a couple of days ago and he now essentially rules by fiat until June 2025. Finally, we still have 2025, and I am sure the Leftist are going to mount increasing resistance both here and internationally. So, Hunter’s prediction about Leftist revolt isn’t proved incorrect just yet.

    Second, Keith Woods is of the same ilk as Nick Fuentes. In fact, Nick and Keith made a deliberate attempt to show they were “protected” when they pictured themselves outside of a certain secret service headquarters overseas prior to Keith Woods arrival in the USA. Consequently, it doesn’t surprise me the little IRA symp was in agreement with the Gay Grand Inquisitor that Trump not only wouldn’t be elected, but shouldn’t be elected. Keith Woods is just another honey pot, but one which, due to various international security agreements, allows various foreign intelligence resources to be used against the so called nationalists. Destroying Trump was always one of his chief aims.

    Third, as was warned to every single leader of the Rightwing Nationalists from Peter Brimelow to Jared Taylor to John Derbyshire to other lesser known luminaries, Nick Fuentes was another Fed Op and Papist honetrap. Sadly, all warnings were ignored, and worse, the aforementioned joined in celebrating his illegal activities and brought in Keith Woods as well. Talk about putting a giant bright X on your back. While, serious damage was suffered by those luminaries, Hunter Wallace managed at the last moment to mostly cut off public association with those two fiends.

    Overall, Hunter did a good job in not only analyzing the political developments in 2024, buf despite circling the drain, he managed to escape the gravitational pull of honey pots and ops. Best still, he managed to get many of the movement back engaged with the GOP and pointing out we are mainstream now. Hopefully, Hunter will be joining the political process even more in the future. Hunter is someone to watch, he’s going places.

  4. I predict that preezy of the steezy Miriam Adelson will have FUSA bomb Iran, escalate in 404 Ukraine.
    Good thing all the youngsters have the convenience of automatic register with Selective Service.
    Listen to MIGA Trump and win one for the kippah!

  5. Sounds like Fuentes got arrested. His kind don’t fair well in prison, and he’s gonna get crucified. Good thing he isn’t White.

    With Daniel Penny being lynched in new york, we didn’t need fuentes muddying the water on these wrongful prosecutions.

    I don’t even care what happened with nick. Can’t be bothered to read whatever stupidity he is engaged in. Hope he reads this.

    You got greedy nick. Flew too close to the sun and burned off your fairy wings. Enjoy prison.

  6. One of HW’s very best forecasts ever. 16 out of 17. It’s still only December and the clowns are doing a fine job of creating quite the mess for Trump before he takes the oath (like ramping up WW III). There’s always the chance that they’ll do a third assassination attempt as well.

  7. Not accurate there on Ukraine. 2024 was far from the biggest gains on the battlefield for Russia. The biggest gains were in the first 2 months of the war in 2022. Followed by very large losses.

    January 2024 Russia has 16.6% of Ukraine’s 1991 land. Today they have from 17.8% to 18.3%, depending upon the source. The land taken this year amounts to about one American sized county. Or two small sized counties.

    So Zelensky still holds 82% of the land, and with Trump coming in, Ukraine will be strengthened greatly.

    Vance is Zog’s man, not Trump. They used Trump as a vehicle to get Vance in as VP. Trump can have “an event” any time they want. If he doesn’t obey, then he will.

    So far he is obeying like a good puppy. When the CIA was getting tired of funding Zelensky covertly, they came up with that $61 billion package, and Trump forced Johnson to approve it. Several other Ukraine aid packages have followed, and Trump supported every single one.

    The Russians are about worn out. They have entered a deal with Turkiye to depose Assad and end that war in Syria. Because they are just worn out.

    • More like Ukraine is worn out. Staggering losses in the slow war of attrition the Russians have engaged. Z will negotiate on Putins terms in 2025. The Assad collapse looks like a deal the Russians made to dump Syria.

  8. Trump has won a major victory, but so did Nixon. Republicans have small majorities in congress. Hit the ground running, the sooner the better. If there’s one thing the establishment knows, it’s how to waste time, if they can delay until close to the next election, very hard to get anything major done.

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