Tom Homan Admits ICE Arrests Have Dropped 12%

May 22, 2026 Hunter Wallace 2026 Midterms, Conservatism, Immigration, MAGA, Politics, Populists 0

As recently as December, I expected “mass deportations” would happen in 2026. The Big Beautiful Bill had passed Congress in June which included $75 billion in ICE funding. I had expected a slow start in 2025 because the funding was only passed over the summer and it was understandable that it would take time to hire and train thousands of ICE agents and build out infrastructure. I also thought there would be pressure on the GOP to deliver “mass deportations” before the midterms.

Washington Examiner:

“HOMAN: No, no, no, no. We just started. We just had, the first year’s a historic year, and we’re going to continue. President Trump committed in the four years he’s in office, we’re going to enforce immigration law at unprecedented levels, and it’s happening. Now a lot of people point that the numbers are down by 12% right now. Well, the government’s shut down, you know, ICE agents, Border Patrol agents, and what’s really hurting us is the contractor people, the people, the smart people that run all these different database checks. I can’t get into the weeds on it because law enforcement sensitive who provide our targeting. Here’s where you, here’s where you may want to find somebody that won’t want to be found based on all kinds of database runs, so that slowed down tremendously, because they weren’t getting paid, so you know it’s numbers are down slightly, but and I know there’s a lot of noise out there about you shouldn’t be just concentrating on criminals, you ought to be arresting everybody, but we are, I don’t know why people don’t understand, just because you prioritize public safety threats doesn’t mean you arrest somebody else’s. If you’ve got a public safety threat here to anon, you know, a non public safety. He has to go first. That’s just common sense, he’s the biggest danger to community. I looked at the numbers just this morning. I look at numbers every morning. We’re about 62% criminal, 38% noncriminal. So let’s say 60-40, 60 criminal, 40 noncriminal. I think that’s a pretty good mix. Would 40% criminal and 60% noncriminal be better? No. So the numbers prove, the numbers prove within itself that we’re arresting noncriminals, and I say the first year number is a record, and we’re continuing to do on that record, but President Trump has committed: mass deportations and no amnesty. …”

It will suffice to say that I was completely wrong.

I was operating from the assumption that Trump and the GOP would be focused on winning the midterms. Politicians are normally motivated by self interest. Instead, the focus has been on making Venezuela the 51st state, regime change in Cuba, the White House ballroom, Trump’s Arch of Triumph, driving up inflation to 6%, shattering Joe Biden’s record on gas prices and war with Iran for Israel. Trump has also focused his attention on purging various enemies in the party (Thomas Massie, John Cornyn, Thom Tillis, Bill Cassidy) thereby freeing them to obstruct and even further narrow his razor thin majority.

Abandoning “mass deportations” seems to be part of Trump’s plan to commit political suicide. It has gotten so bad that he is underwater in in White rural America. There was a new poll out yesterday which showed Trump dropping to 31%. Gallup is reporting a ten point spread in party ID. Trump is dragging down the GOP so badly that JD Vance and Marco Rubio would lose in a landslide to Kamala Harris.

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