BRA
Just in time for the polling bias debate …
The latest Quinnipiac/New York Times CBS poll has Obama by 2 in Virginia, Obama by 1 in Florida, and Obama by 5 in Ohio. The same poll shows a 16 point enthusiasm gap in Florida and a 21 point Romney lead with Independents in Virginia. Yet somehow Democrats are winning Florida and Virginia.
What gives?
Note: Take a closer look at the Party ID: the Florida sample (D+7), Ohio (D+8), Virginia (D+8). Sounds pretty favorable to the Democrats, right? It is based on assumptions even more favorable than Obama’s performance in the 2008 election.
In 2008, the actual breakdown of the electorate on election day (when Obama was at the height of his popularity) was 39% Democrat, 31% Republican, 30% Independent (Ohio), 39% Democrat, 33% Republican, 27% Independent (Virginia), and 37% Democrats, 34% Republicans, 29% Independents (Florida).
In this poll, the Democrats are still 37% of the Florida electorate, but Republicans have declined to 30% percent, while Independents have held steady at 29%. So Quinnipiac/New York Times/CBS predicts that Republicans are going to underperform their 2008 turnout in Florida by 4 points!
In this poll, the Democrats are 37% of the Ohio electorate, but Republicans are 29% and Independents are 30%. In other words, Quinnipiac/New York Times/CBS projects that the Republicans are going to underperform their 2008 turnout in Ohio by 2 points!
In this poll, the Democrats are 35% of the Virginia electorate, but Republicans are 27% and Independents are 35% of the electorate. In other words, Quinnipiac/New York Times/CBS projects that the Republicans are going to underperform their 2008 turnout in Virginia by a full 7 points!
Isn’t it strange that this poll which predicts a massive enthusiasm gap for Republicans in all three states simultaneously manages to predict that Republican turnout in 2012 will be significantly worse than McCain in 2008?
Who knew that Obama’s 2012 performance among likely voters will be like Cam Newton’s 2010 Auburn season except on steroids? This time around Super Cam will have more passing yards, more rushing yards, more touchdowns, and fewer sacks because his opponents will be even more hapless than before.
Obama 2012 is so on fire in Virginia this year – just ask the Democrats who lost there in 2009, 2010, and 2011 – that Republicans are down a full 7 points over 2008 in the Old Dominion.
Nigger Toby may get a surprise in Michigan. Check this out: http://www.city-data.com/county/Monroe_County-MI.html
Monroe County typically gives Democrat presidential candidates around 90% of the vote as they did for Kerry in ’04. They are dyed in the wool Dems, for rich or for poor, in sickness and health, til death death do they part. The majority of the Americans were as disgusted with the Republicans in 2008 as the were in 1976. Bush had tarnished the party every bit as much as Nixon.
If the Dems had ran any White candidate in the last presidential election that candidate would have likely pulled in close to 100% of the Monroe County vote.
The party chose instead to pursue their wet dream of extending Affirmative Action all the way to the White House and as a result Monroe County only gave them 51.7% of the vote.
Livingston County gave Kerry 83.4% of the vote, but they only gave Obama 42.8%.
Macomb County, which normally swings right-handed, turned lefty in 2008. They gave Bush 89.5% of the vote in 2004, but they only gave McCain 45.1% in 2008.
What does all of that indicate? I think at means that a bunch of Michigan voters hate niggers more than they love their party and that others will vote for whoever they are least pissed at.
I think Michigan will roll with Mitt next week.
I can’t help but wonder if you’re losing the forest for the trees here. These poll problems have to be weighed against your own evidence that Yankees and Transplants in the swing states will overwhelmingly go for Obama.
The Mushy Middle SWPL white bloc would vote for Denise if it were made popular by the likes of Conan and a plausible case that jews made 401s go poof. They basically are as venal as can be and their priorities are first to their benefits and priveleges and secondly to PC of the day. Maybe by next week Mitt effin Romney will be “cool” and Kunta Kinte will be seen as angry negro (avoid).
Remember when the AP said that 51% of Americans are racist? The only thing that meant is that the AP had calculated that Obongo was going to get less than 49% of the vote.
And it was truly stupid of them to say that hating niggers is as popular as that. Because the world doesn’t end two weeks after the election after they finish spinning the results. It really fucks with their long term strategy of convincing Whites that all their friends and neighbors will hate them if they say anything.
Haha, this is just a rumor but I have to pass it along: I heard at battlegroundwatch.com that Intrade can be had for like 15k. This seems preposterous to me, but so far it’s the only info I’ve received. I’m going to follow up today and see if I can get some real numbers from Intrade.
If that’s even an order of magnitude from the real figure, It’s both hilarious and tragic. RCP and Dems (and probably even the networks) have been flogging this thing hard for months. If it takes less than a million to move it, it’s advertising, not a gambling site. At least not with regard to the election.
Somebody at RCP said it would be so easy for Soros to move Intrade if the 15k thing is true. I said nuts, it would be so easy for ME to move at 15k. Soros’ third favorite dog could afford that with the coins in his couch.
Er, somebody at BGW, not RCP.
The Left acts crazy in the short term because their spastic behavior never results in the beatdown they need. The kid’s professor went on a class length spiel on Obama, but at the end of the class some white boy went up to the prof and reamed him severly for wasting the classes’ time. That is just a preview, a little taste of what is going to happen once the alt-right and conservatives in general get over their Beta Whinies.
Lew, you can stick a foke in 0bama; he be dun.
Lew, if you’re predicting more than a fraction of a point move in any direction based on demographics changes, you’re probably overestimating the moves.
The Left acts crazy in the short term because their spastic behavior never results in the beatdown they need. The kid’s professor went on a class length spiel on Obama, but at the end of the class some white boy went up to the prof and reamed him severly for wasting the classes’ time. That is just a preview, a little taste of what is going to happen once the alt-right and conservatives in general get over their Beta Whinies.
Reminds me of my nephew. I raised him to be a race-realist/race-skeptic, but I always wondered how much of it really sunk in. He gets to middle school and he’s telling his black (male) history professor what’s what, lol (told him slavery was the best thing to ever happen to black people). That’s all I wanted from him; to have some balls and think for himself. I’d actually prefer he keep his mouth closed in school, but that’s not his personality. I’m a sneaky, conniving Machiavellian, but that gene missed him.
RobRoySimmons, that reminds me of one of the few things Jew Whiskey gets right; “betas” are responsible for almost all organized warfare/death/destruction. Those nice civilized fellows everyone takes for granted rock the planet when mobilized. WWII was a mass mobilization of white “betas.”
The fact that Romney and the zero are fighting over Minnesota, Michigan, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Iowa, Ohio, Nevada, Colorado, etc., and not Arizona or other soft Romney states tells me Romney’s winning.
See Ladbrokes or Paddy Power for what gamblers are really betting on.
I would say in this case that whites are about to chuck the chucker out. It’s going to be instinctive racial hatred.
I’m standing by my prediction for a big Obama win. BGW has some interesting analysis, but I think it can be fairly boiled down to “every poll not favorable to Romney is flawed.” Chris Christie sucking up to Obama on national TV is not helping Romney. The National Journal just dropped a new poll. Obama up 5 nationally. Romney has nothing in his favor other than the claim that all the polls showing him behind mean he is ahead.
I’m standing by my prediction for a big Obama win. BGW has some interesting analysis, but I think it can be fairly boiled down to “every poll not favorable to Romney is flawed.”
If Romney’s got a healthy lead, then that’s what it should boil down to.
Unskew the polls … just give Romney what McCain got in 2008 and he is already president because of his advantage with Independents. :/
Hey Lew, the polls average, what? A ten to twenty point lead for Romney among independents. You’re saying you trust the poll averages…do you trust them on that, too? Can you explain how the 0 wins down that far with indies?
The polls are also saying the 0 will double his lead among dems compared to 2008. Are they right about that, too?
The idea that the polls are all fucked is not an opinion, it’s fact. The election simply cannot turn out the way they’re predicting. They’re wrong somewhere; either in the headlines, or the internals.
So which is it?
Nate Silver likes to talk about numbers. Maybe he should talk about the National Poll numbers. As in, how many incumbent presidents have won the electoral college when they’re at 47% and the challenger is at 50-51%?
Who we gonna believe? The (state) polls, or our own lying eyes?
I would be shocked if Obama had a D+8 electorate in what is clearly not a Democratic wave year.
Again, I will stress this is like assuming the 2012 Auburn football team is really the 2010 Auburn football team with Cam Newton, and Auburn’s competitors are as hapless as they were back then.
A very apt analogy, Hunter. Obama’s complacency has already cost him many votes, and perhaps even the election. His trademark smug grin has been one of the casualties of the election cycle. The mocha messiah is a very worried man these days.
Pride goeth before the fall.
Deo Vindice
Among people betting on the outcome, Obama comes in at -260 (5dimes). You have to put up 2.6 dollars for every dollar you wish to profit. By contrast, for every dollar you bet on Romney, you get back $2.30.
The people making these bets aren’t backing their opinions with talk but with dollars. If they lose, they get punished in a way that hurts deeply.
Obama was as high as -500 before the first debate, then fell to -180. Now has climbed back to -260 as of Samhain (Nov. 1).
The only reason I can see for poll skewing deliberate poll skewing is that pollsters have bets on Romney themselves. Or that they are suppressing nigger rioting before the election day.
Line at Paddy Power, which serves the international (non-US) market:
http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/us-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=482041
Obama: 2/7 and Romney 5/2.
If you don’t know how to read that, it means the ‘punter’ has to wager seven on obama to win 2. Or two on romney to win 5.
In 5d terms, that’s Obama -350 and Romney +250.
The hot-air polls are saying 50/50, the hard-money polls are saying Obama.
Ladbrokes has same odds as Paddy Power (for all I know they’re owned by same people).
Silver and his libtards claim well designed polls doesn’t consider past turn out or partisan ID. They come up with D+9, D+6, etc. based on the likely voter screen in the poll itself. When they conduct the poll, if the data they collect shows that more Dems are likely to vote, then they make an adjustment, D+ whatever. They’re not assuming a 2008 model, and they’re not “skewing” the poll but simply reflecting in the poll their findings on who is more likely to vote.
If this is true, and I don’t believe all these number crunchers are incompetent, then these state polls showing Obama has the EC in the bag make perfect sense. This outcome, just to underscore the point a bit, also fits with one of HWs major ideas: Northern Whites always deliver for liberalism when the chips are down.
I’m just about ready to entertain myself by puting down some green on Obama.
Ladbrokes is the English bookie. Power is the Irish bookie.
They are normally predictive. The Only caution I’d take us these gamblers and bookmakers may misunderstand the polling manipulations. It’s also possible that the bookies want to keep Romney as the longer shot to avoid a payout on the favourite.
These two bookies are pretty damned good though. So I will not be surprised if Obama wins it. Also my bigotry understands that northern white are negrophile morons. Go with your prejudices they are often true.
2 or 3 to 1 is still quite stingey in Horse races. Of course there are only two real options. So I have to assume these two bookmakers are spot on.
We’ve seen repeatedly in stories posted here and elsewhere the public has little trust in the media, correctly seeing them as liberally biased. Presumably this understanding extends to pollsters. No reasonable man would doubt the vast majority of pollsters want Obama to win. Of course, they have to measure off their desires with lost reputation if they let their projections run too far from reality – which they can easily do by skewing questions or respondents. I think the election’s closer than the betting lines indicate, but I don’t feel confident to put money on either one. It would be particularly ironic if Romney won the popular vote and lost the electoral college – if that’s possible. Would be funny to watch the junkmedia spin it contrary to the way they did in Gore-Bush.
My bigotry understands that the British are cowardly pussies who gave away their entire empire, without even firing a shot, to niggers and muslims, and now get chased off of their own ancestral soil, also without even firing a shot, by nigger & muslim invaders. Go with your prejudices they are often true.
“My bigotry understands that the British are cowardly pussies who gave away their entire empire, without even firing a shot, to niggers and muslims, and now get chased off of their own ancestral soil, also without even firing a shot, by nigger & muslim invaders. Go with your prejudices they are often true.”
Replace the word “British” with the word “Yankees” and the word “muslim” with the word “Mexican” in the above passage and your bigoted understanding does describe Northerners to a tee. Thanks for the good advice about prejudices.
You’re getting more Southern by the day, Chris. You’re even starting to sound like stonelifter in your comments.
Stonelifter, imitation is the sincerest form of flattery. Either that or Chris has a man crush on you…ugh.
Stepping back now to watch the “rockets’ red glare,” …so to speak.
Deo Vindice
Among people betting on the outcome, Obama comes in at -260 (5dimes). You have to put up 2.6 dollars for every dollar you wish to profit. By contrast, for every dollar you bet on Romney, you get back $2.30.
The people making these bets aren’t backing their opinions with talk but with dollars. If they lose, they get punished in a way that hurts deeply.
Obama was as high as -500 before the first debate, then fell to -180. Now has climbed back to -260 as of Samhain (Nov. 1).
I’d need to know where the figures came from, and how much money we’re talking about, for this to make a flying fuck to me. How your football pool bets means shit to me.
If I’m George Soros, and I find 10 million in my couch cushions, what could I do to Intrade odds?
I mean, lefties are running around with “Intrade” in their hands screaming about how it backs Silver and the polls. Maybe there’s an advertising bargain to be had behind it all?
I wonder how the punters feel about the early voting going to Romney by 7 points so far? About how Romney’s neck and neck in any vote projection in Nevada? About how he’s on pace to take the 0 in Ohio? And Iowa?
Why are none of the doubters talking about vote counts and the early totals, which are very much in Romney’s favor ATM?
Without a shot? Piles of Argies, Boers, Ashanti, Chinkies, mahdists, Jamaicans, Ugandans, iraqis, Libyans, Zulu, Cypriots, Mau Mau, Renamo… Beg to differ.
InTrade markets can’t be “bought” for some fixed amount. Perhaps some of the less active markets could be susceptible to that game, but the number of shares involved in the presidential contest would make that expensive, even for Soros. There are smarter ways for Soros to invest his money, and he didn’t get rich making foolish bets.
If a whale did try to do this, he would have to be very careful to trickle it in over time, lest it be obvious to technical analysts that a whale dove into the market. The more sophisticated traders would discern that the odds are diverging from their models, and would shift their bets onto the opposition. As such, it would be sort of like trying to pour more water into a full glass.
http://www.intrade.com/v4/misc/scoreboard/
It’s fun to watch the live chart on election nights, as you get to see the data spike one way or another shortly before you see the cause of the spike reported. There are some hardcore geeks with real connections playing that game, and I’m sure they’ve baked the likelihood that voting patterns will diverge from 2008 into their analyses.
The fact that Romney’s floating above 30% means that the smart money believes he has an honest chance of winning. Were they going straight from the pollster math, that number would be much much lower.
If I had any money in the market, I would put it into Mourdock’s senate bid. That’s a far less perfect market and a bunch of money shifted very rapidly into his opponent’s camp immediately after the “rape baby” gaffe. I don’t believe it was as damaging as liberal hipsters playing the market on their iPads in their Manhattan apartments presume it to be. With relatively little data on a statewide contest so close to election day, there’s not much data for the wonks to crunch: it’s a gut call, one where insight into the Hoosier mind is useful.
It’s not a matter of doubt. I’m just trying to think about exactly what is motivating the polling that favours Obama (if it proves to be off base). What is in it for a pollster to skew everything?
John, I just heard there is a factory recall on the 313 model Chris…Detroit is still making lemons, it seems.
I also heard the new 314 model Chris has been recalibrated and actually knows history.
Deo Vindice
Lew says:
‘I’m just about ready to entertain myself by puting down some green on Obama.’
You may as well kiss that cash goodbye.
LOL, the bitter, eternally-defeated Southron is so nigger-stupid that he doesn’t even know what ‘313’ is!
Romney 2012! Yankee Pride!
The Quinnipiac Poll/New York Times/CBS poll itself (the subject of this thread), the Pew poll, and the Gallup poll ALL SHOW that Republicans have a clear advantage among likely voters on election day … by something like 10 points, in fact.
Hunter,
The simple majority is entirely beside the point, is it not?
I’m not completely dismissing your points, here, but why do you think the quants over at InTrade are betting 70 to 30 on Obama?
I’m sure they are betting on the basis of the average of the state polls and the RCP projection of the Electoral College which is derived from those polls.
Are the state polls accurate though? This poll is accurate if you assume that Republican turnout in 2012 will be down 2 in Ohio from 2008, 4 in Florida from 2008, and 7 in Virginia from 2008. Does anyone seriously think that Romney is going to do that much worse than McCain when he is over 51 percent in the Gallup poll?
BTW, this same poll says that Romney has a 21 point lead with Independents in Virginia who were 30 percent of the electorate in 2008.
The notion that Democratic turnout will be weak relative to 2012 is something that has been considered in the analysis of everybody who plays this game seriously. And these people are more than happy to account for politically incorrect factors and considerations. Black turnout will definitely be less than 2012, but it will surely exceed 2004, will it not?
It’s not that rural Whites in Virginia, Ohio, and Iowa are going to vote for Obama. They’re not. But I think the Tea Party spike has pretty much run its course and they’re perhaps even more depressed and unlikely to vote than in 2008.
We’ll see, but I think you’re being bullish on Romney.
I can read polls … :/
NPR
http://media.npr.org/documents/2012/oct/NPROctpoll.pdf
Quinnipiac/New York Times/CBS
Pew
http://www.people-press.org/2012/10/29/presidential-race-dead-even-romney-maintains-turnout-edge/
Gallup
Matt Parrott says:
‘But I think the Tea Party spike has pretty much run its course and they’re perhaps even more depressed and unlikely to vote than in 2008.’
Not quite!
Sorry, Beltway Media, the Tea Party Is Here–and Fighting to Win
http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/10/31/Sorry-Beltway-Media-the-Tea-Party-Is-Here–and-Fighting%20to%20Win
Beltway media shoe-gazer EJ Dionne is pushing an incoherent (and unintentionally humorous) theory that the Tea Party movement has joined Osama bin Laden as a casualty under the Obama administration.
Mr. Dionne is apparently an authority on the Tea Party. His brilliant prediction in 2010 was “The Tea Party…will not determine the outcome of the 2010 elections.”
Most political analysts will confirm not only was Mr. Dionne wrong, but that 2010 was the year the Tea Party movement brought about the biggest political shift in America in 62 years. Mr. Dionne failed to notice the single biggest political shift in his lifetime, just like he’s failing to notice the tremendous effect the Tea Party movement is having across America in the 2012 elections.
Mr. Dionne and some of his colleagues in the media have missed the point that the Tea Party movement is about something bigger than winning the next election; it is about winning the hearts and minds of like-minded Americans who know this country is headed in the wrong direction. Four years of an Administration that has taken us to a $16 trillion dollar debt and more–borrowing from China–and a federal government oblivious to an economic disaster ahead has awakened hundreds of thousands of Americans to act.
There have been political wins, too. The Tea Party movement trumped beltway opinion and beat back the Wisconsin recall election–this year–and the Tea Party fundamentally transformed the debate around Obamacare to the point where more Americans agree with the Tea Party position on Obamacare than with President Obama and his loyal court stenographers.
The Tea Party movement has only existed for three years.
Three years in which the Tea Party movement has weathered massive and sustained attacks from the left, from the media, and from the White House–and yet we’re still here, and growing in numbers.
Unnoticed by Beltway media pundits, the Tea Party is active at every level of the political process. Our 3500 local coordinators report of interest at every level of process from city council to U.S. Senate, where we’ve seen people like Ted Cruz overcome the odds and the political machine to win at the ballot box.
History tells us that political movements don’t take over a country overnight, but from what we know about the mood of the country (Mr. Dionne might want to get outside of the Beltway) the fundamental principles of our organization, Tea Party Patriots, and others are gaining support from Americans.
On Obamacare alone, the majority of the American people are with the Tea Party. The majority of Americans reject the assault on free markets that is Obamacare, and believe in their hearts that freedom is better than more government control. (snip)
Black voter “turnout” will indeed be significantly lower than it was in ’08, because so many of those unregistered/repeat/deceased/altogether non-existent “voters” have been purged from voter-rolls nationwide.
The white Democrat vote is demoralized among all but the extreme left, and even many of them aren’t likely to wait in a huge line full of obvious Republican voters.
The Tea Party vote, will not as outwardly visible as it was two years ago (the novelty having since worn off) is undoubtedly as fired-up, if not more, than it was for the mid-terms. This is the big prize they’ve been waiting for. The chance to exact revenge for that stomach-turning scene four years ago. The chance to get rid of the face that has come symbolize everything that distresses them about the present and future.
I believe you’re cherry-picking.
Likely Voters
Year :: DNC : GOP :: IND
2004 :: 37% : 39% : 24%
2008 :: 39% : 29% : 31%
2012 :: 35% : 36% : 29%
Bear in mind that Bush won the 2004 election by a razor-thin margin, and that the meta-trend is of White boomers croaking and minorities taking their place.
There was obviously some Bush fatigue going on in 2008, but I don’t believe one can credibly state that there’s an impressive surge in GOP excitement relative to the historical average when it’s significantly lower than in the rather sleepy 2004 election.
Like I said earlier, Romney’s definitely got a solid shot at victory, and plenty of the polling models are flawed in the ways you suggest. Ultimately, I believe that the quantitative easing and calming oil markets will have an anaesthetic effect on GOP enthusiasm.
Instead of guessing about a D+9 electorate on election day, why not take a look at the early voting that is already going on? Is there a D+9 advantage in early voting seeing how the election is going on right now?
Colorado Republicans lead Democrats in early voting with 1.1 million ballots cast
http://www.denverpost.com/breakingnews/ci_21897135/colorado-republicans-lead-democrats-early-voting-1-1
Democrat Mayor: Obama Losing Early Voting in Wisconsin
http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/10/31/Obama-Surrogate-says-Obama-Would-Lose-WI-today
Sifting The Numbers
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204846304578090820229096046.html?mod=WSJ_Opinion_LEADTop
Adrian Gray, who oversaw the Bush 2004 voter-contact operation and is now a policy analyst for a New York investment firm, makes the point that as of Tuesday, 530,813 Ohio Democrats had voted early or had requested or cast an absentee ballot. That’s down 181,275 from four years ago. But 448,357 Ohio Republicans had voted early or had requested or cast an absentee ballot, up 75,858 from the last presidential election.
That 257,133-vote swing almost wipes out Mr. Obama’s 2008 Ohio victory margin of 262,224. Since most observers expect Republicans to win Election Day turnout, these early vote numbers point toward a Romney victory in Ohio.
Dem Early Vote Lead In Florida Down 70% Over 2008
http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/10/31/Dem-Early-Vote-Lead-Down-In-FL
Gallup Voters, 2008
Democrat/Lean Democrat – 54
Republican/Lean Republican -42
= D+12
Gallup Likely Voters, 2012
Democrat/Lean Democrat – 46
Republican/Lean Republican – 49
= R+3
As I showed above, Gallup, Pew, NPR, and Quinnipiac/New York Times/CBS News are all in agreement that Republicans are significantly more enthusiastic. Of those polls, NPR has Romney by 1, Gallup has Romney by 4, Pew has the race tied, and Quinnipiac has Obama up 5 in Ohio, 2 in Virginia, and 1 in Florida.