It is easy to imagine the next insurrection.
The most likely scenario is that Donald Trump decisively beats Joe Biden or Kamala Harris in 2024. This time it is not even close. God Emperor Blumpf is restored to power, but this time with a large Trumpified majority in Congress and a party that has been purged of the haters and losers.
“A year after the insurrection, I’m trying to imagine the death of American democracy. It’s somehow easier to picture the Earth blasted and bleached by global warming, or the human brain overtaken by the tyranny of artificial intelligence, than to foresee the end of our 250-year experiment in self-government.
The usual scenarios are unconvincing. The country is not going to split into two hostile sections and fight a war of secession. No dictator will send his secret police to round up dissidents in the dead of night. Analogies like these bring the comfort of at least being familiar. Nothing has aided Donald Trump more than Americans’ failure of imagination. It’s essential to picture an unprecedented future so that what may seem impossible doesn’t become inevitable.
Before January 6, no one—including intelligence professionals—could have conceived of a president provoking his followers to smash up the Capitol. Even the rioters livestreaming in National Statuary Hall seemed stunned by what they were doing. The siege felt like a wild shot that could have been fatal. For a nanosecond, shocked politicians of both parties sang together from the hymnal of democracy. But the unity didn’t last. The past months have made it clear that the near miss was a warning shot. …”
The same elite cabal which orchestrated the George Floyd riots does not accept the legitimacy of Trump’s victory in the 2024 election. They aren’t ordered to “stand down.” Most Americans correctly perceive that the Democrats pose a bigger threat to democracy.
“The conversation that followed was a difficult one, led by the activists charged with the protest strategy. “We wanted to be mindful of when was the right time to call for moving masses of people into the street,” Peoples says. As much as they were eager to mount a show of strength, mobilizing immediately could backfire and put people at risk. Protests that devolved into violent clashes would give Trump a pretext to send in federal agents or troops as he had over the summer. And rather than elevate Trump’s complaints by continuing to fight him, the alliance wanted to send the message that the people had spoken.
So the word went out: stand down. Protect the Results announced that it would “not be activating the entire national mobilization network today, but remains ready to activate if necessary.” On Twitter, outraged progressives wondered what was going on. Why wasn’t anyone trying to stop Trump’s coup? Where were all the protests?
Podhorzer credits the activists for their restraint. “They had spent so much time getting ready to hit the streets on Wednesday. But they did it,” he says. “Wednesday through Friday, there was not a single Antifa vs. Proud Boys incident like everyone was expecting. And when that didn’t materialize, I don’t think the Trump campaign had a backup plan.” …”
What would have happened if Trump had won the 2020 election?
There would have been an insurrection by the Democrats who would have blamed Joe Biden’s defeat on “white supremacy” and voter suppression. Neither side was ever going to back down and accept they legitimately lost the election. There would have been more, not less, violence. January 6th is mild compared to the tantrum that would have happened had Trump prevailed and not been stopped by COVID.
How will the Democrats who are already laying the predicate for saying the 2024 election was rigged handle losing Congress and the White House and Trump being restored to power and being more powerful than ever before? That’s the most interesting question in American politics.