2022 Hedges

I’ve officially made my 2022 predictions.

Is there anything which could knock us off our current trajectory though? I’m probably going to be wrong about something big and these are the most likely scenarios.

1. Joe Biden Gets Lucky Again

Low Probability. In this scenario, Joe Biden gets lucky and everything breaks his way in 2022. Gas prices, inflation, violent crime and illegal immigration come down. COVID finally fades as I expect it will in 2022. Joe Manchin and Krysten Sinema have a change of heart and vote for a larger than expected Build Back Better bill. Biden forgives student loan debt. The Supreme Court stirs up the Democratic base. Joe Biden has a Sister Souljah moment and triangulates against progressive activists and Trumpism like Bill Clinton. As a result, Democrats hold the Senate and suffer minimal losses in the House.

2. Supreme Court Strikes Down Roe v. Wade

Moderate Probability. Maybe I am underestimating Neil Gorsuch, Amy Coney Barrett and Brett Kavanaugh and Roe v. Wade is struck down this summer in an intensely polarizing 5-4 decision. Evangelicals win a major culture war victory and abortion ignites the culture war at the state level and drives up Democratic turnout among college educated White women in the 2022 midterms.

3. Inflation Spikes

Moderate Probability. In this scenario, we haven’t seen the worst of inflation which I underestimate again and the Republican wave in the 2022 midterms ends up being much larger than it is now. The working class and middle class suffers a historic drop in their standard of living – worse than it was in the 1970s – and Weimerica goes the way of Weimar Germany in terms of polarization and radicalization.

4. New COVID Variant Drops

Moderate Probability. As Omicron fades, a new COVID variant as bad or worse than Delta emerges and drives up the COVID death toll over a million deaths. Joe Biden and Lord Fauci are exposed as hopelessly inept. COVID drags on all year and frustration mounts as we approach the 2022 midterms in which the Democrats suffer an ever larger defeat than we expect.

5. Foreign Policy Crisis

Moderate Probability. Afghanistan was one of my biggest misses in 2021. I expected it to be a win for Joe Biden who I overestimated on both inflation, getting credit from swing voters for policies like the child tax credit and handling the economy. Perhaps Sleepy Joe finds himself in a real crisis – something like Russia invading Ukraine or China invading Taiwan or Iran and Israel going to war – and it goes even worse for him and American prestige than Afghanistan before the 2022 midterms.

6. Joe Biden Dies In Office Or Goes Full Senile

Moderate Probability. Harry Reid just dropped dead and he was only three years older than Joe Biden. John Lewis recently dropped dead and he was two years older than Joe Biden. Colin Powell dropped dead from COVID and he was only five years older than Joe Biden. We’re assuming that Joe Biden makes it through 2022 (the one we are allowed to see on camera), but given his age and health it is entirely possible that he just goes full senile or dies in office of natural causes before the 2022 midterms.

7. Merrick Garland Chooses Not To Indict Trump

Moderate Probability. It would be out of character for Merrick Garland to show restraint, but it is possible that Blumpf isn’t indicted on criminal charges over the “January 6 insurrection.” This seems to be where the January 6 committee show trial and endless coverage in the media which no one is really paying attention to is headed. If Garland chooses not to indict Trump in a naked attempt to take him out before 2024, our politics won’t be as Third World as I expect them to be a year from now.

8. Violent Accelerationists Return

Moderate Probability. Fortunately, there have been no accelerationist mass shootings over the past year and we have kept a low profile while gaining lots of political ground, but who knows how long our luck will last before the next idiot thinks he can unilaterally ignite the race war and lashes out? Perhaps a violent outburst in 2022 comes from some other quarter like the anti-vaxxers or the Patriot movement? While I don’t think it is likely to happen, it is a real possibility.

9. New Movement Variant Drops

Moderate Probability. The rise of the Alt-Right occurred in the context of the late Obama years. The movement imploded in 2017 and has been in disarray since that time, but conditions are ripe for a new variant of White Nationalism to emerge on the back end of the Biden presidency. Millions of Trumpers have been radicalized under the Brandon administration, a major backlash is brewing against progressive activists, trust in “journalism” is at an all time low and there is now a mass audience for radical change with ideas like the Great Replacement, White Genocide and secession going mainstream. You would think we would be able to take advantage of that and catch the next wave.

Spoiler: It won’t be Apollonianism.

About Hunter Wallace 12325 Articles
Founder and Editor-in-Chief of Occidental Dissent

18 Comments

  1. “”…Is there anything which could knock us off our current trajectory though?…””

    No. What we see it complete downfall of the Empire. It is too late to change anything. Trump gave the Empire death blow and now we see freefall. Of course multiple actors play role. Russians, Chinese who bought assets only for launching hyperinflation when needed.

    Crazy senile leadership makes things only worse so more and more people will jump the ship so regime will lose last competent people.

    Then economy kicks in. Local leaders will be forced to ignore central government to defend people and ensure basic needs, food , energy . This demands money and so local leaders are forced to use alternative currency or issue their own one.

    And so on. Classical Empire collapse scenario. Trump promised to drain The Swamp and now The Swamp is draining in the whole world. Afghanistan is dry already, other countries will follow soon.

    • >The Swamp is draining in the whole world.

      Not the entire world, just us. We’re witnessing Asian civilizations returning to their normal historical rank. European dominance is an anomaly. Note that I’m not invoking some conservatard Fu Manchu boogeyman here as many Asian nations have declining populations. The actual challenge is that we’re facing an integrated economic super-zone containing 5 billion people from the Middle East to Southeast Asia. Even Matt Yglesias’ stupid fantasy of one billion mystery-meat Muricans can’t compete against this.

      The ability to consume things grows out of a region’s productive capacity; that’s why a barber in Frankfurt has 5x the purchasing power as a barber in Lagos. As most consumer growth will now be in Asia, it will continue to vacuum more and more resources, which means things will continue to get dearer in the West. And this is optimistically assuming everyone is still accepting petrodollars and we can print money as a stopgap.

      Let freedom ring.

      We need to study economists such as Ha-Joon Chang and Erik Reinert. There’s an overlooked nationalist/mercantilist economic tradition that should be central to what we preach. If you think the United States is going to collapse, this is even more important, as we don’t want to create an Africanized economy that just exports food and raw materials and leaves us in poverty.

    • ““”…Is there anything which could knock us off our current trajectory though?…””

      Major economic slump, kiss BTC goodbye, along wi the other bubbles, shares, real estate, gucci bags.

  2. Maybe Internet sabotage brings e-commerce and banking to a halt on a regular basis. Power outages and supply shortages become commonplace. If not this year it will be soon.

  3. Just curious…did anyone vote on the basis of Covid for the last election? Was “Covid” the big issue for you? Not for me.
    We are constantly told it’s the true battle of both Biden and Trump. They both want to be the one who ended Covid (which will never really end…). We are told Trump lost based on not handling Covid. Who are these people who actually voted on that? The only thing that could have been done was to quarantine the nation, and Trump was advised NOT to do that. They let in all of those government workers from China, and said they didn’t feel feverish. Later, so many of them came down with Covid. Both men wanted a quick vaccine developed, and one was, and people rushed out to get it. Both men want to be the one who gets credit for stopping the pandemic. Yet, both of them let in millions and millions of nonwhites. No reason to be here, except to live off of us.

    I would think people would vote on the things destroying our nation. “Immigration” (invasion, loss of freedoms, more and more “anti-discriminatory” impositions, and corrupt government.

    • “I would think people would vote on the things destroying our nation”

      They would, if we didn’t have a controlled press, that warps their view of reality.
      It’s hard to see straight, when you’re wearing distortion glasses.

    • Biden lied and said he would not support vax mandates just like FDR said he would not send US children to war. You can’t really have a Democracy with lying satanic pedophiles in control of the government. Trump was never really in control. More of a protest vote.

  4. Youth are becoming increasingly leftist, therefore psychopaths, nutjobs, etc who may have gone alt right 15 years ago now must surely notice that antifa type leftist activism gives them a “get out of jail free” card and is a much better horse to bet on for their true agenda of just hurting people and hurting society. May hopefully be why the vantard implosion crap has declined.

  5. “a major backlash is brewing”:

    Yes we are definitely now in the stage of right reaction, swinging to the right now in the endless “left”-right-“left’-right cycle of “our democracy.” Reaction to the Democrats’ failed. fake left performance is inevitable.

    Fake leftism has a vital role to play in conserving the system: it preempts. displaces, discredits, and finally joins the right in attacking any real leftism.

    People believe they can elect left leaders, but the “left” candidates they elect always swing right once they are in office. All the so-called “left” presidential candidates elected recently in Peru, Chile, and Honduras have changed their tune completely once they are in office. Don’t worry, the global Empire of Money that is so powerful it can keep all or almost all of its colonies under control, secure from revolution, can easily protect its “homeland” from real revolution.

    • “joins the right in attacking any real leftism”

      “non-woke” leftism is fake leftism. It is just another example of white flight from the bottom-up, like the old GOP was a top-down, Charles Murray white-flight. #BlackLivesMatter is real leftism. Capital isn’t just static inequality, it is historically based, and history is variety of struggles, class, sex, and race. Marx was just suffering from the white dominance of his day with his colorblind, economist centered analysis.

      If you are genuine about leftism or any aspects of it like feminism and mainstream environmentalism, then you have to embrace Black Lives Matter, and transgenderism to put an even finer point on it. Really, the whole progressive identity spoils system. That is why for example Richard Spencer is a fraud and everything he does now is born purely out of resentment. In his cowardice, he will throw everyone under the bus, old acquaintances, incels (whom he agreed with and inculcated for years, just like Anglin), and seemingly align with liberals and feminists, but if you corner him on the black question, the ultimate leftist question, then he evades, whines, and tries to change the subject. Because it isn’t about leftism, liberals, or conservatives, it is about “hell hath no fury like a woman scorned,” and Spencer is very feminine. Everything that hyper fringe crowd does is resentment and pettiness.

      Similarly, non-woke leftists will go on endlessly about economist inequalities but then go full stop at the “identity politics” question and claim at best it is an elite divide and conqueror strategy. Even if that were true, is not the traction of “identity politics” proof of its reality? Non-woke leftism is an implicit, unconscious way of implying white people first through a colorblind suppression of non-white predications of the economic question, just like the liberalism of yesterday when it mandated great authors and Beethoven as educational aspirations for blacks.

      Leftism and rightism all misses the point. You either pursue your own racial strategy, or you don’t and become overwhelmed by other races that DO. The old white nationalists were right. Whites haven’t been able to engage on that level for 70 something years, and may never be able to do so with our collapsing numbers, and our recent Alt-Right attempt was sabotaged by toxic e-celebs and grifters, resulting in Charlottesville and MAGA, which then further degenerated into nothing but resentment, backbiting, and plain coping in the case of the “Apollonian” joke. Pulling some random god out of your ass, and completely out of context I might add, and arbitrarily assigning a white ubermensch supremacy charter to his image you saved on your harddrive is completely and totally meaningless. Similarly, going on and on about the yawning chasm between haves and have nots, but then ignoring slavery and the reparation question, is hypocritical and will never work.

      So besides race, what happens to the economic question? That is what National-Socialism was for. It solved the bourgeois bickering over money while preserving the greatness of the white race. National-Socialism is the logical, dialectical conclusion of Western History. That is it, it goes no further if we ever wanted to survive and prosper. We haven’t been able to confront the issue for decades, and the recent Alt-Right fiasco may have been the last chance given our collapsing numbers. Just throwing your hands up and surrendering on race, pretending it doesn’t exist so you can get some transfer payment money, or trying to curry favor with liberals and throwing people under the bus is not going to save anyone.

      • Re: “non-woke leftism is fake leftism. It is just another example of white flight from the bottom-up, like the old GOP was a top-down, Charles Murray white-flight. #BlackLivesMatter is real leftism. Capital isn’t just static inequality, it is historically based, and history is variety of struggles, class, sex, and race. Marx was just suffering from the white dominance of his day with his colorblind, economist centered analysis. If you are genuine about leftism or any aspects of it like feminism and mainstream environmentalism, then you have to embrace Black Lives Matter, and transgenderism to put an even finer point on it. Really, the whole progressive identity spoils system”:

        Well said, but I respectfully disagree. I say real leftism can be nothing but Ethno- socialism, because humanity exists not just as individuals but as families, tribes, and nations, or peoples. “Woke leftism” is fake leftism if it is concerned not with class or capitalism as such, but with establishing so-called “rights” to fornicate, intoxicate, steal, murder, etc.

        Re: “non-woke leftists will go on endlessly about economist inequalities but then go full stop at the ‘identity politics’ question and claim at best it is an elite divide and conqueror strategy. Even if that were true, is not the traction of ‘identity politics’ proof of its reality? Non-woke leftism is an implicit, unconscious way of implying white people first through a colorblind suppression of non-white predications of the economic question, just like the liberalism of yesterday when it mandated great authors and Beethoven as educational aspirations for blacks”:

        Again I don’t fall into your category of “non-woke leftists,” since I do emphasize family, tribe and ethnicity as fundamental realities of human nature, not mere “constructs.” Real socialism is NATURAL – necessarily tribal or ethnic/ethno-national.

        I also disagree, respectfully, that Naziism is “the logical, dialectical conclusion of Western History.” Naziism was a hard right populist reformism that complimented the fake-left Weimar “democracy” in conserving capitalism and opposing the genuine socialism that really is “the logical, dialectical conclusion of history.” Naziism celebrated German ethnicity and culture, while preserving class structure and exploitation; and it was just as militant-imperialistic as the first Reich and even more martial, and even more anti-socialist (think: Operation Barbarossa) than the Weimar “republic.”

      • Naziism always sounded ethno, but what good did that do for Germans? When Hitler was elevated to power, the German people were being prepared for total war against socialism, and the Weimar social welfare programs were reinstated to help with that preparation, while the really socialist-sounding promises of the “25 Points” platform of 1920 that party leaders including Hitler swore to fulfill, that deceived many German socialists into joining the party (so the majority of early Nazis were actually communists) were promptly ignored as soon as the anti-communist war regime was established:

        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Socialist_Program#The_25-point_Program_of_the_NSDAP

  6. They’re gonna keep trying to goad Russia into war, and keep being made fools of.

    The EU will eventually fold. NATO is all but extinct, except for USZOG and Poland. Both are going to fold, once USZOG can no longer field armies, fleets and Air forces of any significance. Britain has already withdrawn the BOAR from Germany. France dropped out of NATO in 1966. Nobody in Europe wants a war.

    There’s not going to be a US invasion of Iran. The United States no longer has the money or the blood carry it out. Nobody but the Jews want war with Iran, anyway.

    The New World Order has failed. The oligarchs won’t even be able to create the North American Combine, to use the parlance of the OGRE wargame, or the unitary currency, the so-called “Amero.” All that they are going to be able to do, is make all of us in North America suffer. Before the eventual collapse.

    China may, or may not take over Taiwan. Whatever happens there, nobody wants a war in Asia. USZOG won’t be able to do anything without making themselves look stupid, feckless, and the aggressor. So they won’t. The few competent generals and admirals that haven’t been punished or expelled, know better. There will be a quiet withdrawal from Japan and the Western Pacific, Especially once the U.S. Navy and airforce become incapable, due to incompetence and poor human material. This will be quietly dropped from the news cycle, if it’s mentioned at all in the “American” news(K) media.

    Japan will become a major power again, complete with a large, modern navy, and nuclear weapons. They’ll begin to rely on themselves more, for their own defense.

    Texas will become the new center of silicon chip manufacturing in North America.

    Yankeedom and the Left Coast will continue to stumbled towards collapse.

    Following the lead of Texas and Florida, more and more Southern states will look to themselves, and to their region, for solutions to regional, state, and local political and economic problems. They’ll increasingly cut Washington out of the loop, and start paying less attention to the babbling of Yankee and Left Coast SJWs, and their Congress people and Senators.

    California and Illinois will be in a race to see who collapses first. The Judeo-Yankee media will try to hide it, even as New York State begins to collapse.

    The Great Lakes region, the so-called “Midwest,” may push for secession from the Northeast. But not from “America.”

    Look for #bluestatesecrssion to go nowhere. Who are they gonna secede from? Themselves? They ‘are’ America®.”

    The rest of us are just gonna keep plodding along, as always.

  7. Karen Dunn is not done tormenting innocent whites at the behest of that Christ killer, Merrick Garland.

    From the New York Times 10/21/21

    One former clerk, Karen Dunn, now a lawyer in Washington, recalls how the Garlands descended unexpectedly on her with a fully prepared dinner when she came home from the hospital after the birth of her first child. “They brought food, sat down and ate it with us, cleaned everything up and then left,” Ms. Dunn recalled.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/20/us/merrick-garland-attorney-general.html

    Garland has got some big plans.

  8. Keep an eye on the French elections. I don’t think Zemmour will beat GloboHomo puppet Macron (in fact I fear he will peel off Right votes from Le Pen), but if he does pull off an upset, it’s game on in Europe.

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