I’ve officially made my 2022 predictions.
Is there anything which could knock us off our current trajectory though? I’m probably going to be wrong about something big and these are the most likely scenarios.
1. Joe Biden Gets Lucky Again
Low Probability. In this scenario, Joe Biden gets lucky and everything breaks his way in 2022. Gas prices, inflation, violent crime and illegal immigration come down. COVID finally fades as I expect it will in 2022. Joe Manchin and Krysten Sinema have a change of heart and vote for a larger than expected Build Back Better bill. Biden forgives student loan debt. The Supreme Court stirs up the Democratic base. Joe Biden has a Sister Souljah moment and triangulates against progressive activists and Trumpism like Bill Clinton. As a result, Democrats hold the Senate and suffer minimal losses in the House.
2. Supreme Court Strikes Down Roe v. Wade
Moderate Probability. Maybe I am underestimating Neil Gorsuch, Amy Coney Barrett and Brett Kavanaugh and Roe v. Wade is struck down this summer in an intensely polarizing 5-4 decision. Evangelicals win a major culture war victory and abortion ignites the culture war at the state level and drives up Democratic turnout among college educated White women in the 2022 midterms.
3. Inflation Spikes
Moderate Probability. In this scenario, we haven’t seen the worst of inflation which I underestimate again and the Republican wave in the 2022 midterms ends up being much larger than it is now. The working class and middle class suffers a historic drop in their standard of living – worse than it was in the 1970s – and Weimerica goes the way of Weimar Germany in terms of polarization and radicalization.
4. New COVID Variant Drops
Moderate Probability. As Omicron fades, a new COVID variant as bad or worse than Delta emerges and drives up the COVID death toll over a million deaths. Joe Biden and Lord Fauci are exposed as hopelessly inept. COVID drags on all year and frustration mounts as we approach the 2022 midterms in which the Democrats suffer an ever larger defeat than we expect.
5. Foreign Policy Crisis
Moderate Probability. Afghanistan was one of my biggest misses in 2021. I expected it to be a win for Joe Biden who I overestimated on both inflation, getting credit from swing voters for policies like the child tax credit and handling the economy. Perhaps Sleepy Joe finds himself in a real crisis – something like Russia invading Ukraine or China invading Taiwan or Iran and Israel going to war – and it goes even worse for him and American prestige than Afghanistan before the 2022 midterms.
6. Joe Biden Dies In Office Or Goes Full Senile
Moderate Probability. Harry Reid just dropped dead and he was only three years older than Joe Biden. John Lewis recently dropped dead and he was two years older than Joe Biden. Colin Powell dropped dead from COVID and he was only five years older than Joe Biden. We’re assuming that Joe Biden makes it through 2022 (the one we are allowed to see on camera), but given his age and health it is entirely possible that he just goes full senile or dies in office of natural causes before the 2022 midterms.
7. Merrick Garland Chooses Not To Indict Trump
Moderate Probability. It would be out of character for Merrick Garland to show restraint, but it is possible that Blumpf isn’t indicted on criminal charges over the “January 6 insurrection.” This seems to be where the January 6 committee show trial and endless coverage in the media which no one is really paying attention to is headed. If Garland chooses not to indict Trump in a naked attempt to take him out before 2024, our politics won’t be as Third World as I expect them to be a year from now.
8. Violent Accelerationists Return
Moderate Probability. Fortunately, there have been no accelerationist mass shootings over the past year and we have kept a low profile while gaining lots of political ground, but who knows how long our luck will last before the next idiot thinks he can unilaterally ignite the race war and lashes out? Perhaps a violent outburst in 2022 comes from some other quarter like the anti-vaxxers or the Patriot movement? While I don’t think it is likely to happen, it is a real possibility.
9. New Movement Variant Drops
Moderate Probability. The rise of the Alt-Right occurred in the context of the late Obama years. The movement imploded in 2017 and has been in disarray since that time, but conditions are ripe for a new variant of White Nationalism to emerge on the back end of the Biden presidency. Millions of Trumpers have been radicalized under the Brandon administration, a major backlash is brewing against progressive activists, trust in “journalism” is at an all time low and there is now a mass audience for radical change with ideas like the Great Replacement, White Genocide and secession going mainstream. You would think we would be able to take advantage of that and catch the next wave.
Spoiler: It won’t be Apollonianism.