We will see how this turns out a year from now.
1. Republicans Win 2022 Midterms
The 2022 midterms will be a red wave election and the latest round of backlash politics. This is the norm in American politics. George W. Bush, Barack Obama and Donald Trump all saw their party lose control of at least one chamber of Congress in 2006, 2010, 2014 and 2018. The Republicans will take the House and probably the Senate although their margin of victory will depend on how inflation, gas prices, violent crime, illegal immigration and COVID go over the course of the next year.
2. Rise of the Cultural Tea Party
Powered by the revolutionary platform “Let’s Go Brandon,” the Republican Party will continue its evolution into a vessel of backlash politics and performative lib owning and will be animated by the rejection of vanguard cultural liberalism. The mark of a good statesman in the new GOP will be measured by the ability of a politician to trigger and own the libs, not by passing successful legislation. In 2017, Trump was an outlier in the GOP, but by 2024 he will have successfully purged the haters and the losers like Liz Cheney and will be well on his way to rebuilding the party in his own image with more MAGA Squad members like Lauren Boebert and Marjorie Taylor Greene proliferating in Congress and at the state level. The story of 2022 will be the Trumpification of the GOP by a sort of culture war Tea Party.
3. “Latinx” Voters Shift Right
The Republican Party will become more Hispanic in 2022 as “Latinx” voters continue to shift Right like the White working class Obama-Trump voters before them in between 2012 and 2016. The Democratic Party will continue to bleed these Democratic Leaning Working Class (DLWC) voters whose values and priorities are out of sync with its dominant woke professional wing. This influx of “Latinx” voters which is sure to be complemented by higher levels of support among White rural voters will continue to push the Republican Party in a more moderate direction on economics. Even if this trend is not reflected in policy, the median Republican voter will become more populist, but not socialist, on economics.
4. Red Dogs Come Home Temporarily
At least in this election cycle without Trump on the ballot, more of the traditional Mitt Romney-style Republicans who are unhappy with Joe Biden will continue to swing between the parties and will come home in the suburbs. Basically, the pattern that we saw in Virginia and New Jersey and other states will be replicated on a national scale – high margins among White rural voters, “Latinx” voters shifting Right and traditional suburban Republicans swinging back to the GOP.
5. COVID Fades For Real
The COVID pandemic will end in 2022. The Omicron variant heralds the inevitable transition into the COVID endemic in which the virus weakens into just another strain of the common cold. COVID will never go away, but Americans are exhausted with it after two years and ready to move on with their lives. It is likely that another new COVID variant will emerge in 2022, but I think we have seen the worst of the pandemic and doubt that another nasty variant like Delta will emerge in the future. The bitterness and division of COVID politics, however, is a different story and the backlash against Joe Biden’s COVID policies will play a powerful role in driving up Republican turnout in the 2022 midterms.
6. Gas Prices, Illegal Immigration and Violent Crime Remain Stubbornly High
I don’t think we have seen the worst on these fronts under Joe Biden. I think gas prices and illegal immigration will be higher next summer and violent crime will remain elevated and a major issue in the big cities. All three of these issues will suppress Joe Biden’s approval rating with Independent voters.
7. Polarization Will Increase In 2022
This is an easy call.
The country will become more polarized and radicalized in 2022 which is an election year. The issue that is most likely to ratchet up polarization to the next level is abortion which the Supreme Court will rule on before the 2022 midterms. Regardless of what happens to Roe v. Wade, the Republican base is animated by dozens of culture war grievances now and the gap between the two sides will only grow.
8. Supreme Court Weakens Roe v. Wade
I’m skeptical that the Supreme Court will outright overturn Roe v. Wade. I doubt that Brett Kavanaugh, Amy Coney Barrett and Neil Gorsuch will rise to the occasion. I think they will throw the evangelicals a bone and weaken abortion while maintaining the status quo.
9. Stephen Breyer Retires and Joe Biden Replaces Him With a Black Woman
In light of the fact that Democrats will likely lose the Senate in the 2022 midterms, Stephen Breyer will retire and Joe Biden will make good on his promise to Jim Clyburn and will nominate a black woman to replace him. The confirmation hearings for this black woman will also be full of charges of “racism” and “white supremacy” against Republicans.
10. Inflation Will Persist Into Early 2022
Honestly, I don’t know if the supply chain issues will be sorted out by the 2022 midterms. I assume that inflation will persist at least for the next few months. If I was forced to guess, I would assume that inflation will ebb somewhat before the midterms as the world recovers from COVID and that will take some wind out of the Republican sails. I underestimated inflation though in 2021.
11. Donald Trump Announces His 2024 Revenge Tour
Your Favorite President will announce he is running for president to dethrone Sleepy Joe shortly after the massive Republican victory in the 2022 midterms for which he will take tremendous credit.
12. Merrick Garland Indicts Donald Trump
I assume that the ultimate outcome of the January 6 committee will be finding some excuse for Merrick Garland to press criminal charges against Trump – most likely due to all the shameless Stop the Steal grifting – to disqualify him from running for president in 2024. This will be massively polarizing, but the Democrats will do it anyway.
13. Media Continues Breathless Coverage of “January 6 Insurrection”
The media hasn’t broken away from their breathless coverage of the “January 6 insurrection” for a solid year now which has become the new Russiagate for the shitlibs who watch CNN and MSNBC. The “journalists” will continue to cover the story through the 2022 midterms and even more furiously after Trump is indicted by Garland. Once again, shitlibs will be on the edge of their seats to see if Trump goes to prison like they were over the release of the Mueller Report.
14. Counter-Extremism Grift Continues
The counter-extremism and disinformation grift will continue as the ADL and SPLC and the Atlantic Council’s “Digital Forensic Research Lab” and the “Global Project Against Hate and Extremism” continue to release new reports and push for technocratic solutions to America’s long term social disintegration, but Americans will continue to become more polarized and radicalized in spite of all their censorship, doxxing and lawfare. As social media balkanizes due to censorship and “journalists” abandon their ostensible neutrality in favor of moral clarity, “extremists” will continue to blur with the “mainstream” as trust in “mainstream” sources approaches zero and more of our ideas and narratives spread through the Right and become more prevalent without the moderation on sites like Facebook and Twitter.
15. Build Back Better Will Pass In Some Form
The Democrats will come out of the gates in 2022 with an even more watered down and stripped down version of Build Back Better in the hope satisfying Joe Manchin and Krysten Sinema. They will eventually pass something through budget reconciliation to save face and declare victory and House Progressives will cave to Manchin like they always do. Although BBB 2.0 will eventually pass Congress, it will prove as exciting and transformative as BIF. It will be another dud and the last legislative hurrah of the Biden presidency.
16. “Our Democracy” Will Die In 2022
“Our Democracy” will die in 2022 when the woke professional class which is concentrated in coastal metro areas and has lost its legitimacy is repudiated by voters at the ballot box.