Now that we are officially in the second half of 2022, I have been thinking lately about what I got right and what I got wrong:
1. Republicans Win 2022 Midterms
I don’t see this changing. It is a safe bet that the GOP will take the House. The Senate could swing either way like it did in 2018.
2. Rise of the Cultural Tea Party
We’ve already seen a lot of the haters and losers purged in their primaries. Liz Cheney will go down in flames in August.
3. “Latinx” Voters Shift Right
There is stronger evidence than ever that the trend is real. We will see in the midterms.
4. Red Dogs Come Home Temporarily
5. COVID Fades For Real
I called this one right.
6. Gas Prices, Illegal Immigration and Violent Crime Remain Stubbornly High
7. Polarization Will Increase In 2022
8. Supreme Court Weakens Roe v. Wade
I underestimated conservatives.
9. Stephen Breyer Retires and Joe Biden Replaces Him With a Black Woman
10. Inflation Will Persist Into Early 2022
I’ve overestimated the ability of the Biden administration to handle inflation for the second year in a row.
11. Donald Trump Announces His 2024 Revenge Tour
Highly likely. It might even happen before the midterms.
12. Merrick Garland Indicts Donald Trump
I would be shocked if the little Jewish troll didn’t.
13. Media Continues Breathless Coverage of “January 6 Insurrection”
Who could have ever predicted that?
14. Counter-Extremism Grift Continues
15. Build Back Better Will Pass In Some Form
Once again, I am biased in favor of overestimating the Democrats.
16. “Our Democracy” Will Die In 2022
As for my hedges, Russia invaded Ukraine, violent accelerationists returned, inflation spiked and the Supreme Court struck down Roe v. Wade. 4 out of the 9 things which I thought could happen have happened. Ukraine was the biggest miss. The banner explains why I didn’t think the war was likely to jump off.