Nevada Is Going Red

NEVADA EARLY VOTING COMPARISON

2022
Democrats: 38.3% (D+198 votes)
Republicans: 38.27%

2020
Democrats: 40.4% (D+45,461)
Republicans: 35.7%

? Net Swing: +45,263 towards the GOP from 2020. That’s +11,667 votes MORE than Biden’s NV 2020 margin

Data from @WinWithJMC

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) November 6, 2022

FINAL POLL By @insidepolling1

NV Senate
(R) Adam Laxalt: 50% (+6)
(D) Catherine Cortez Masto: 44%

NV Governor
(R) Joe Lombardo: 49% (+5)
(D) Steve Sisolak: 44%

500 Likely Voters, November 4https://t.co/wU4Ax4Mncl pic.twitter.com/EPXTtGRrw4

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) November 5, 2022

NEWS: Actual updated #s, after rural updates, show NV is essentially tied!

Dems w/tiny lead, under 1K, it seems. Will know for sure w/final SOS update.

As I thought, rurals have erased Clark firewall, so it’s all on Washoe now to tell us who will win…

Man, do #WeMatter pic.twitter.com/Nms5LmdxXc

— Jon Ralston (@RalstonReports) November 5, 2022

NEVADA EV, THEN AND NOW
(Fixed the 2nd number)

11/4/2022: 628,938 (38.3-38.27% D/R), +198 D
10/30/2020: 955,922 (40.4-35.7% D/R), +45461 D

— John Couvillon (@WinWithJMC) November 6, 2022

v. good chance all four Nevada and Iowa House members are Republican after next Tuesday.

— Jeff B. is *BOX OFFICE POISON* (@EsotericCD) November 6, 2022

?????

“The GOP rural lead appears to be (waiting for official SOS update) greater than the Clark firewall, and with Washoe so close, the state essentially is tied. Tied!

This I have never seen.” – @RalstonReports https://t.co/t9pIhBGJ04

— Jeff B. is *BOX OFFICE POISON* (@EsotericCD) November 5, 2022

Blog update as I wait for new Clark mail to post:

Clark turnout significantly down, and GOP has 5 point turnout advantage in big Dem county.

Rural margins are huge, and they are turning out above their share of reg.

Dems need help from the postman.https://t.co/7TRQUrtH05 pic.twitter.com/1XsGraDVXc

— Jon Ralston (@RalstonReports) November 6, 2022

How are the midterms going?

Nevada is going the way of Virginia with sky high rural turnout and margins and Democrats underperforming in Clark County.